Record 32% of new vehicle sales to be EVs in 2030, study finds

A new analysis of U.S. electric vehicle sales projects that a record share of new vehicles sold in 2030 will be electric, despite recent steps by the federal government to remove incentives to their growth.

The report, by researchers at the Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability, indicates that EVs will make up an estimated 32 percent of new car sales by 2030 — assuming current policy remains in place — quadruple the 8 percent share of new sales in 2025.

That forecast does not mean the steps taken by the current administration, which opposes federal support for EVs, are having no impact. The researchers pointed out that absent those steps EVs would make up an even greater share of 2030 new car sales, as high as an estimated 48 percent.

“In the long run, everything’s going in the direction of market-based adoption, despite the moves by the Trump administration that reduce pressure for EV sales,” said Elaine Buckberg, senior fellow at the Salata Institute, at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, and one of the report’s authors.

The report, “Simulating Impacts of Proposed Trump Policy Changes on Electric Vehicle (EV) Adoption,” was released in July and written by Buckberg, James Stock, the Harold Hitchings Burbank Professor of Political Economy, and by former Ph.D. student in economics Cassandra Cole.

The work analyzed the impact of several regulatory and legislative steps taken by the government since January 2025 that have removed tax credits for EV sales and the installation of new charging equipment, eliminated restrictions on tailpipe emissions, and revoked California’s ability to impose stricter tailpipe emission standards than the federal government requires, among others.

Several of these moves are being challenged in court.

The researchers modeled the impact of each of the steps, with the largest being removing the purchase tax credit, which cut up to $7,500 off the price of a new electric vehicle and alone accounts for an estimated 6.2 percentage point reduction in EVs’ share of 2030 new vehicle sales.

The step would also save the government $169.2 billion in lost revenue from the tax credits over the decade spanning 2026 and 2035.

Buckberg, former chief economist for General Motors, said the analysis shows the administration’s moves will slow but not stop an expected acceleration in EV adoption. The most immediate reason for this is that many prospective buyers, while happy for the tax credit, would buy the cars even without it.

Perhaps more significant in the long term are broader changes that make EVs increasingly competitive with gasoline vehicles. Chief among them are advances in battery technology, which will allow automakers to offer longer-range EVs without increasing price.

Along with those changes have come shifts in how EV owners use their vehicles.

Increasingly, Buckberg said, electric vehicles have greater range and can be recharged more rapidly on the road. That means that, while early adopters often used them as a second vehicle, mainly around town, EV owners today are often using them in much the same way they would gasoline-powered vehicles.

The biggest hurdle to adoption is consumer concern about charging infrastructure, Buckberg said. As that infrastructure grows nationally, gaps in charger coverage will narrow.

What will help, Buckberg said, is making charger status and price available so EV drivers can find them in any mapping app. By reducing consumer “range anxiety,” app-data transparency alone could potentially boost sales 6 percent.

“Concerns about charging are the biggest holdback to EV adoption,” Buckberg said. “If we continue to see improvements in battery cost and battery density translating to EV prices, when it becomes price equivalent or very close it becomes much more attractive. If you are doing a road trip, you have at least 300 miles of range and can go to a highway charger that takes 10 to 15 minutes, it becomes a more perfect substitute.”

As EVs approach price parity with internal combustion vehicles — which has occurred with some models — other advantages of electric vehicles will carry greater weight with the consumer, Buckberg said. Among them are better performance, a reduction in routine maintenance needs as EVs have fewer moving parts, and insulation from the price swings of gasoline.

“The EV tax credit — one of the things that’s gotten the most focus — will become less and less relevant as the price gap narrows,” Buckberg said. “Our research shows that charging is by far the most cost-effective lever. Real-time data is the least expensive lever of all, and something states can act on right now.”

With U.S. carmakers also competing internationally, another important development has been the growth of EV sales worldwide.

The International Energy Agency, in its July report on the global outlook for EVs, said that sales worldwide are ahead of those in the U.S. and expected to reach 29 percent of global car sales this year, up 10 percent over 2025.

Increased electric car sales come at a time when overall car sales have declined globally.

Buckberg said the global embrace of EVs has been boosted in part by the war with Iran, its disruption of oil supplies, and the increased prices that come with it.

The IEA report, in fact, said that sales in Australia, Brazil, India, Korea, and Vietnam have approximately doubled since the global energy crisis began, measured from March to June 2026 versus 2025.

“EV adoption is rising,” Buckberg said. “In 2025, there were 25 markets where EV sales topped 10 percent and there were about a dozen where it topped 20 percent.”