HLT: You mentioned that the Trump administration is dismantling environmental regulations approved by the Obama administration, including new fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks. What is the current status and what do you think the impact will be?

Freeman:  The EPA just finalized their rule rolling back the historic fuel efficiency/greenhouse gas standards the Obama administration adopted for cars and trucks. I think the EPA will run into some trouble in the courts. They did everything possible to try to justify the new rule, but just couldn’t manage to do it. Their own numbers show that its costs outweigh its benefits, and that it’s bad for consumers, bad for the environment, and bad for public health. A trifecta of failure! It’s hard to think of another policy as misguided as this, especially since the auto industry itself is ambivalent about it at best — many leading companies would be happy with gradually escalating standards, and have said so, only to be threatened with a lawsuit by Trump suggesting they colluded with California. Remarkable.

HLT: An effort is also underway to reverse Obama administration regulations on power plant emissions. Where does that stand and what are the likely effects?

Freeman: The Trump administration replaced Obama’s “Clean Power Plan,” which would have reduced greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector by a projected 32 percent by 2030, with a rule that would only slightly cut emissions in the very best case by around 1.5 percent. Again, their own numbers show what a bad policy this is: It will actually increase premature deaths from the additional air pollution.

The Obama plan would have built on market forces that are already pushing electric utilities to use cheap natural gas instead of coal, by pressing them to go even faster and further toward a cleaner energy mix, with a greater share of renewables and more energy efficiency displacing fossil fuels. Instead, this administration has done everything possible to try to extend the life of the nation’s oldest and dirtiest coal-fired power plants. It’s exactly the wrong policy for climate change. Here again, we will see a legal challenge, which won’t be resolved until we are past the 2020 presidential election.

HLT: How about Congress? Is there a role for the legislative branch to play here?

Freeman: It would be far better if the U.S. Congress got in the game and passed legislation putting a price on carbon, whether through a carbon tax or through an economywide cap on carbon that allows firms to trade pollution allowances in a market-based scheme — an approach that has worked well for other pollution problems, like acid rain. It would be far more efficient and effective for Congress to adopt a comprehensive solution to climate change than to rely on piecemeal strategies that a president can implement using existing laws, which are not perfectly designed for dealing with climate change.

Before the COVID crisis, industry support for a carbon tax was building, and I think that support is fairly solid because a tax is the preferred option for business. But the Democrats would need to control both chambers, I think, to get it done. And even then, it would be a heavy lift without a president putting his shoulder to the wheel.

HLT: COVID-19 has reduced the number of people traveling by car or air. At the same time, oil prices have recently fallen to record lows. What impact is all this having on the environment in the short term, and do you see potential for any long-term effects?

Freeman: It’s too soon to draw lessons from COVID, and I don’t agree with some who say there is a “silver lining” in the form of lower emissions because the economy is shut down. No one wants the economy shut down! On a short-term basis, yes, we have healthier air, and with the simultaneous supply and demand shocks in the oil industry, we have a glut of product, so gas prices have plummeted. And in theory, people might be tempted to buy bigger, less fuel-efficient SUVs since fueling them will be cheap, if this situation lasts.

But we need to keep our eye on the ball with climate policy — we need a policy not for the short term, but for the long term. The best solution is to raise fuel efficiency standards for the transport sector and support zero-emission vehicles, including electric vehicles; drive greenhouse gas reduction in the electricity sector by supporting renewables and energy efficiency; and adopt a suite of other policies in the manufacturing, industrial, and agricultural sectors that also reduce greenhouse gases.

It may be harder to do that in an economic crisis, because it will be tempting to say we can’t afford it. But if COVID teaches us anything, it’s that there is more peril in being unprepared than in taking steps in advance to avoid disasters. The long-term economic costs of doing nothing on climate change are far higher than if we take appropriate steps and make the needed investments now. You don’t need to believe me — economists from both parties and informed experts on both sides of the aisle have repeatedly made this argument.

To me, the lesson of the moment is: We were not ready for this global pandemic, and our institutions were slow to respond. Let’s not keep making that mistake with climate change.