The pandemic is also affecting in-person voting. Protocols around social distancing and masking are being enacted, again at the state and local levels, but many former polling places — such as schools and nursing homes — are considered too vulnerable to utilize. Especially as concern rises over long waits to vote, viable alternatives are sought. “There is a lot of uncertainty around both the safety of in-person voting and how in-person voting will occur,” said Fung. “A lot of states are shifting around polling places and trying to accommodate increased early voting.”

Who will staff those polling places is also a concern. Historically, retirees have made up the bulk of poll workers, but this population is at greater risk from the pandemic. “Some of the people who are the most reliable poll workers are also the most vulnerable,” said Fung. Nonpartisan campaigns to recruit younger poll workers are ongoing. “One of the silver linings of this election is that a new generation of people will have the experience of working the polls,” said Fung.

Another positive development is that many corporations are engaged in increasing voter participation. More than 1,100 companies, including Patagonia, Walgreens, and PayPal have joined the nonpartisan Time to Vote coalition, with many either giving their employees paid time off to vote or making other concessions, such as opening later on Election Day, Nov. 3.

Potentially undermining all these developments and the best of precautions is public opinion. “The confidence in our elections is weaker,” said Fung. “There are legitimate concerns in how elections are administered and whether they are free and fair.” These concerns come from across the political spectrum. “Some people think there is voter suppression,” said Fung. “Other people think that there’s some voter fraud.”

Overall, Democrats favor lowering the bar and making access easier. There is a general belief that Democrats benefit from higher turnouts. Republicans historically have backed higher barriers that often include a focus on voter identity and other security measures.

For instance, in the upcoming election the GOP hopes to recruit an estimated 50,000 volunteers to act as “poll watchers” to ensure voters’ legitimacy. Republicans have also set aside $20 million as a legal fund to resist attempts to enlarge voting rolls. The two parties are enmeshed in a battle in Florida about overturning a law that kept most convicted felons from voting. Both President Trump and Attorney General William Barr have voiced opposition to mail-in voting, saying it invites fraud, though they have not provided any evidence to support their claim. Citing his concerns, Trump has refused to say that he would unequivocally accept the result of the election should he lose.

Many of the complications around the election are being further tangled by the issues arising from the pandemic. “Part of what we’re seeing is that these various problems are taking place in a climate that doesn’t make it easy to solve them,” said Keyssar. He cites the delays expected from the increased number of mail-in ballots. “It’s very unlikely that the outcome of the election will be determined by election night,” said Keyssar. “A number of states are not going to have had a chance to start counting ballots, and the current administration is trying to make it harder for people to count.”

Citing the 2000 presidential election, when Florida’s electoral vote was decided by the Supreme Court, Keyssar notes other possible complications, none of which are likely to promote voter confidence. “There is the question for any given state about who certifies the choice of electors and who certifies the electoral votes of that state,” he said. When tallies are delayed or unclear, he said, “it may be legal and constitutional for a state legislature to choose electors by itself. The challenge is getting a transparent and clear outcome and getting broad popular consent to that outcome.”

A recent article in The Atlantic hints at how difficult that might be. The piece reports that Republican Party officials told journalist Barton Gellman that the Trump campaign is considering pushing battleground states with GOP majorities in their legislatures to appoint electors who will support the incumbent should he lose in the voting, the justification being a concern over widespread fraud. Lawrence Tabas, Republican Party chair in the pivotal state of Pennsylvania, was quoted as saying, “I’ve mentioned it to them, and I hope they’re thinking about it too.”

“I think the remarkable fact about this election is that the outcome would not be in doubt, and we would not be having all this drama, if we had a national popular vote,” Keyssar said.

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