For historical perspective, William Tobey, co-chair of the Korean Security Study Group, brought up Ronald Reagan’s 1986 summit with the Soviet Union in Reykjavik. That summit was “widely seen as a failure,” said Tobey, who served on the national security council under three presidents, but ultimately it resulted in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty of 1988. “This is the start of negotiations,” said Tobey. John Park, director of the Korea Project, agreed, adding, “It wasn’t a single summit, but a process.”

Still, what will happen next is unclear. Panelists reported scanning the official North Korean news site for any developments — but as of Thursday morning, the celebratory announcements of the summit’s start had not yet been updated. While the U.S. is calling the summit a failure, said Samore, “We don’t know what the North Korean version is,” or how the country will spin its abrupt ending.

Samore shared an optimistic note: “Trump walked away in a very gracious way, showering compliments on Kim Jong-un,” he noted. “In terms of diplomacy, it was the right way.”

Any next steps may have to happen soon. “Trump has a limited amount of time,” said Moon. With political problems and the 2020 elections looming, he probably has until next fall to make any further progress, she and others agreed.

Kim, however, is seen as having more leeway. “He’s already tested a thermonuclear device,” said Samore, adding that China and Russia have already reduced sanctions and that China, in fact, may secretly be providing additional subsidies.

A wildcard, as several panelists also noted, is that Kim has prioritized building up North Korea’s economy. Indeed, visits to Vietnam’s economic centers by Kim and members of his entourage appear to be continuing, despite the summit’s end. This may provide an impetus to further diplomacy. But complicating the economic factor is that “we’re in the middle of a U.S.–China trade war,” said Park. “If we weren’t, the subject of secondary sanctions would be interesting.”

Overall, the panel agreed that the current dual freeze is likely to last, with Kim holding off on additional testing and U.S.­–South Korea military exercises kept to a minimum. This, they said, may simply be what real diplomacy looks like. Even as the U.S. might look back at Reykjavik for a precedent, North Korea may be examining the experience of its own allies. “It took seven years from when Nixon went to China to normalize relations,” Park pointed out.

“We’re headed toward a return to normalcy of doing staff work,” said Tobey.