New model for predicting cardiovascular disease risk worldwide

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Researchers have developed the first global model for predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. The model—developed by Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Imperial College London, and colleagues—will be of particular help to public health professionals, clinicians, and patients in developing countries for prevention of CVD.

A paper on the new CVD risk prediction method, and its application in several example countries, appears online March 26, 2015 in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology.

“This new tool allows health care professionals around the world to make optimal clinical decisions about treatment of their patients and for health policy makers to efficiently allocate resources to CVD prevention,” said Goodarz Danaei, assistant professor of global health at Harvard Chan School.

To develop the model, which will be available later this year at, the researchers analyzed data from more than 50,000 participants in eight existing long-term studies, which included risk factors such as blood pressure, cholesterol, diabetes, and smoking, as well as gender and age.

The researchers generated risk charts that estimated risk of fatal CVD over a span of 10 years for 11 countries in different regions of the world. The researchers found that more people were at high risk of CVD in many developing countries compared with developed ones.