{"id":65352,"date":"2010-11-04T17:00:18","date_gmt":"2010-11-04T21:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"\/gazette\/?p=65352"},"modified":"2019-05-06T13:24:53","modified_gmt":"2019-05-06T17:24:53","slug":"obesity-rate-will-reach-at-least-42","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2010\/11\/obesity-rate-will-reach-at-least-42\/","title":{"rendered":"Obesity rate will reach at least 42%"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\t
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\u201cOur analysis suggests that while people have gotten better at gaining weight since 1971, they haven\u2019t gotten any better at losing weight,\u201d says lead author Alison L. Hill (right), who worked on the study with co-authors David G. Rand (left), Martin A. Nowak, and Nicholas A. Christakis.<\/p>

Jon Chase\/Harvard Staff Photographer<\/p><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\t

\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\tHealth\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\n\t\t

\n\t\tObesity rate will reach at least 42%\t<\/h1>\n\n\t\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\tSteve Bradt\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t

\n\t\t\tHarvard Staff Writer\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/address>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t

\n\t\t\tProjections suggest obesity among U.S. adults may not plateau until 2050\t\t<\/h2>\n\t\t\n<\/header>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\t\t

Researchers at Harvard University<\/a> say America\u2019s obesity epidemic won\u2019t plateau until at least 42 percent of adults are obese, an estimate derived by applying mathematical modeling to 40 years of Framingham Heart Study<\/a> data.<\/p>\n

Their work, published this week in the journal PLoS Computational Biology<\/a>, runs counter to recent assertions by some experts that the obesity rate, which has been at 34 percent for the past five years, may have peaked. An additional 34 percent of American adults are overweight but not obese, according to the federal government\u2019s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Harvard scientists say that their modeling shows that the proliferation of obesity among American adults in recent decades owes in large part to its accelerating spread via social networks.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur analysis suggests that while people have gotten better at gaining weight since 1971, they haven\u2019t gotten any better at losing weight,\u201d says lead author Alison L. Hill, a graduate student in Harvard\u2019s Program for Evolutionary Dynamics, Biophysics Program<\/a>, and at the Harvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences and Technology. \u201cSpecifically, the rate of weight gain due to social transmission has grown quite rapidly.\u201d<\/p>\n

The projections by Hill and colleagues are a best-case scenario, meaning that America\u2019s obesity rate could rise above 42 percent of adults. One silver lining is that their model suggests the U.S. population may not reach this level for another 40 years, making the future rate of increase much more gradual than over the past 40 years. Only 14 percent of Framingham Heart Study participants were obese in 1971.<\/p>\n

Along with co-authors David G. Rand, Martin A. Nowak, and Nicholas A. Christakis, Hill broke down the spread of obesity into three components:<\/p>\n

\u25cf the rate at which obesity has spread through social networks, via transfer from person to person;<\/p>\n

\u25cf the rate of nonsocial transmission of obesity, such as through easier access to unhealthy foods or increasingly sedentary lifestyles;<\/p>\n

\u25cf the rate of \u201crecovery\u201d from obesity, defined as weight loss sufficient to push body mass index (BMI) back below 30.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe find that while nonsocial transmission of obesity remains the most important component in its spread, social transmission of obesity has grown much faster in the last four decades,\u201d says Rand, a research scientist in the Program for Evolutionary Dynamics and a fellow in Harvard\u2019s Department of Psychology<\/a> and Berkman Center for Internet & Society<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Hill, Rand, and colleagues found that a nonobese American adult has a 2 percent chance of becoming obese in any given year \u2014 a figure that has risen in recent decades \u2014 and that this number rises by 0.5 percentage points with each obese social contact, meaning that four obese contacts doubles the risk of becoming obese.<\/p>\n

By comparison, an obese adult has a 4 percent chance of losing enough weight to fall back to merely \u201coverweight\u201d in any given year. This figure has remained essentially constant since 1971.<\/p>\n

\u201cThese results suggest that social norms are changing the propensity for becoming obese by nonsocial mechanisms, and also magnifying the effect that obese individuals have on their nonobese contacts,\u201d the scientists write in PLoS Computational Biology.<\/p>\n

Hill, Rand, Nowak, and Christakis\u2019 work was funded by the National Institute on Aging<\/a>, the John Templeton Foundation<\/a>, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Science Foundation\/National Institutes of Health Joint Program in Mathematical Biology,<\/a> and graduate fellowships from the National Science Foundation, and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Researchers at Harvard University say America\u2019s obesity epidemic won\u2019t plateau until at least 42 percent of adults are obese, an estimate derived by applying mathematical modeling to 40 years of Framingham Heart Study data.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":105622744,"featured_media":65387,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"gz_ga_pageviews":8,"gz_ga_lastupdated":"2019-06-03 19:09","document_color_palette":"crimson","author":"Steve Bradt","affiliation":"Harvard Staff Writer","_category_override":"","_yoast_wpseo_primary_category":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[39644],"tags":[3611,5632,5811,6095,6156,7607,10098,10689,12475,13633,14006,16274,19723,22049,22865,25097,25150,25154,25199,25621,26054,27693,31619,32290],"gazette-formats":[],"series":[],"class_list":["post-65352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-health","tag-alison-l-hill","tag-berkman-center-for-internet-society","tag-bill-and-melinda-gates-foundation","tag-bmi","tag-body-mass-index","tag-centers-for-disease-control-and-prevention","tag-david-g-rand","tag-department-of-psychology","tag-epidemic","tag-framingham-heart-study","tag-gaining-weight","tag-harvard-mit-division-of-health-sciences-and-technology","tag-john-templeton-foundation","tag-losing-weight","tag-martin-a-nowak","tag-national-institute-on-aging","tag-national-science-foundation","tag-national-science-foundationnational-institutes-of-health-joint-program-in-mathematical-biology","tag-natural-sciences-and-engineering-research-council-of-canada","tag-nicholas-a-christakis","tag-obesity","tag-plos-computational-biology","tag-social-networks","tag-steve-bradt"],"yoast_head":"\nObesity rate will reach at least 42% — Harvard Gazette<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Researchers at Harvard University say America\u2019s obesity epidemic won\u2019t plateau until at least 42 percent of adults are obese, an estimate derived by applying mathematical modeling to 40 years of Framingham Heart Study data.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2010\/11\/obesity-rate-will-reach-at-least-42\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Obesity rate will reach at least 42% — Harvard Gazette\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Researchers at Harvard University say America\u2019s obesity epidemic won\u2019t plateau until at least 42 percent of adults are obese, an estimate derived by applying mathematical modeling to 40 years of Framingham Heart Study data.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2010\/11\/obesity-rate-will-reach-at-least-42\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Harvard Gazette\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2010-11-04T21:00:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-05-06T17:24:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/102810_obesity_065.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"605\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"403\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"harvardgazette\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2010\/11\/obesity-rate-will-reach-at-least-42\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2010\/11\/obesity-rate-will-reach-at-least-42\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"harvardgazette\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/#\/schema\/person\/78d028cf624923e92682268709ffbc4b\"},\"headline\":\"Obesity rate will reach at least 42%\",\"datePublished\":\"2010-11-04T21:00:18+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-05-06T17:24:53+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2010\/11\/obesity-rate-will-reach-at-least-42\/\"},\"wordCount\":618,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2010\/11\/obesity-rate-will-reach-at-least-42\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/102810_obesity_065.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Alison L. 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Christakis.","mediaId":65387,"mediaSize":"full","mediaType":"image","mediaUrl":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/102810_obesity_065.jpg","poster":"","title":"Obesity rate will reach at least 42%","subheading":"Projections suggest obesity among U.S. adults may not plateau until 2050","centeredImage":true,"className":"is-style-full-width-text-below","mediaHeight":403,"mediaWidth":605,"backgroundFixed":false,"backgroundTone":"light","coloredBackground":false,"displayOverlay":true,"fadeInText":false,"isAmbient":false,"mediaLength":"","mediaPosition":"","posterText":"","titleAbove":false,"useUncroppedImage":false,"lock":[],"metadata":[]},"innerBlocks":[],"innerHTML":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img alt=\"\" height=\"403\" loading=\"eager\" src=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/102810_obesity_065.jpg\" width=\"605\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><p class=\"wp-element-caption--caption\">\u201cOur analysis suggests that while people have gotten better at gaining weight since 1971, they haven\u2019t gotten any better at losing weight,\u201d says lead author Alison L. Hill (right), who worked on the study with co-authors David G. Rand (left), Martin A. Nowak, and Nicholas A. Christakis.<\/p><p class=\"wp-element-caption--credit\">Jon Chase\/Harvard Staff Photographer<\/p><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","innerContent":["<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img alt=\"\" height=\"403\" loading=\"eager\" src=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/102810_obesity_065.jpg\" width=\"605\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><p class=\"wp-element-caption--caption\">\u201cOur analysis suggests that while people have gotten better at gaining weight since 1971, they haven\u2019t gotten any better at losing weight,\u201d says lead author Alison L. Hill (right), who worked on the study with co-authors David G. Rand (left), Martin A. Nowak, and Nicholas A. Christakis.<\/p><p class=\"wp-element-caption--credit\">Jon Chase\/Harvard Staff Photographer<\/p><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n"],"rendered":"<header\n\tclass=\"wp-block-harvard-gazette-article-header alignfull article-header is-style-full-width-text-below centered-image\"\n\tstyle=\" \"\n>\n\t<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img alt=\"\" height=\"403\" loading=\"eager\" src=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/102810_obesity_065.jpg\" width=\"605\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><p class=\"wp-element-caption--caption\">\u201cOur analysis suggests that while people have gotten better at gaining weight since 1971, they haven\u2019t gotten any better at losing weight,\u201d says lead author Alison L. Hill (right), who worked on the study with co-authors David G. Rand (left), Martin A. Nowak, and Nicholas A. Christakis.<\/p><p class=\"wp-element-caption--credit\">Jon Chase\/Harvard Staff Photographer<\/p><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\t<div class=\"article-header__content\">\n\t\t\t<a\n\t\t\tclass=\"article-header__category\"\n\t\t\thref=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/section\/health\/\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\tHealth\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\n\t\t<h1 class=\"article-header__title wp-block-heading \">\n\t\tObesity rate will reach at least 42%\t<\/h1>\n\n\t\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t<div class=\"article-header__meta\">\n\t\t<div class=\"wp-block-post-author\">\n\t\t\t<address class=\"wp-block-post-author__content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"author wp-block-post-author__name\">\n\t\tSteve Bradt\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t<p class=\"wp-block-post-author__byline\">\n\t\t\tHarvard Staff Writer\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/address>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t<time class=\"article-header__date\" datetime=\"2010-11-04\">\n\t\t\tNovember 4, 2010\t\t<\/time>\n\n\t\t<span class=\"article-header__reading-time\">\n\t\t\t4 min read\t\t<\/span>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n\t\t\t<h2 class=\"article-header__subheading wp-block-heading\">\n\t\t\tProjections suggest obesity among U.S. adults may not plateau until 2050\t\t<\/h2>\n\t\t\n<\/header>\n"},"2":{"blockName":"core\/group","attrs":{"templateLock":false,"metadata":{"name":"Article content"},"align":"wide","layout":{"type":"constrained","justifyContent":"center"},"tagName":"div","lock":[],"className":"","style":[],"backgroundColor":"","textColor":"","gradient":"","fontSize":"","fontFamily":"","borderColor":"","ariaLabel":"","anchor":""},"innerBlocks":[{"blockName":"core\/freeform","attrs":{"content":"","lock":[],"metadata":[]},"innerBlocks":[],"innerHTML":"\n\t\t<p>Researchers at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.harvard.edu\/\">Harvard University<\/a> say America\u2019s obesity epidemic won\u2019t plateau until at least 42 percent of adults are obese, an estimate derived by applying mathematical modeling to 40 years of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.framinghamheartstudy.org\/\">Framingham Heart Study<\/a> data.<\/p>\n<p>Their work, published this week in the journal <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ploscompbiol.org\/home.action\">PLoS Computational Biology<\/a>, runs counter to recent assertions by some experts that the obesity rate, which has been at 34 percent for the past five years, may have peaked. An additional 34 percent of American adults are overweight but not obese, according to the federal government\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/\">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The Harvard scientists say that their modeling shows that the proliferation of obesity among American adults in recent decades owes in large part to its accelerating spread via social networks.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOur analysis suggests that while people have gotten better at gaining weight since 1971, they haven\u2019t gotten any better at losing weight,\u201d says lead author Alison L. Hill, a graduate student in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fas.harvard.edu\/~ped\/\">Harvard\u2019s Program for Evolutionary Dynamics, Biophysics Program<\/a>, and at the Harvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences and Technology. \u201cSpecifically, the rate of weight gain due to social transmission has grown quite rapidly.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The projections by Hill and colleagues are a best-case scenario, meaning that America\u2019s obesity rate could rise above 42 percent of adults. One silver lining is that their model suggests the U.S. population may not reach this level for another 40 years, making the future rate of increase much more gradual than over the past 40 years. Only 14 percent of Framingham Heart Study participants were obese in 1971.<\/p>\n<p>Along with co-authors David G. Rand, Martin A. Nowak, and Nicholas A. Christakis, Hill broke down the spread of obesity into three components:<\/p>\n<p>\u25cf the rate at which obesity has spread through social networks, via transfer from person to person;<\/p>\n<p>\u25cf the rate of nonsocial transmission of obesity, such as through easier access to unhealthy foods or increasingly sedentary lifestyles;<\/p>\n<p>\u25cf the rate of \u201crecovery\u201d from obesity, defined as weight loss sufficient to push body mass index (BMI) back below 30.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe find that while nonsocial transmission of obesity remains the most important component in its spread, social transmission of obesity has grown much faster in the last four decades,\u201d says Rand, a research scientist in the Program for Evolutionary Dynamics and a fellow in <a href=\"https:\/\/psychology.fas.harvard.edu\">Harvard\u2019s Department of Psychology<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/cyber.law.harvard.edu\/\">Berkman Center for Internet & Society<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Hill, Rand, and colleagues found that a nonobese American adult has a 2 percent chance of becoming obese in any given year \u2014 a figure that has risen in recent decades \u2014 and that this number rises by 0.5 percentage points with each obese social contact, meaning that four obese contacts doubles the risk of becoming obese.<\/p>\n<p>By comparison, an obese adult has a 4 percent chance of losing enough weight to fall back to merely \u201coverweight\u201d in any given year. This figure has remained essentially constant since 1971.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThese results suggest that social norms are changing the propensity for becoming obese by nonsocial mechanisms, and also magnifying the effect that obese individuals have on their nonobese contacts,\u201d the scientists write in PLoS Computational Biology.<\/p>\n<p>Hill, Rand, Nowak, and Christakis\u2019 work was funded by the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nia.nih.gov\/\">National Institute on Aging<\/a>, the<a href=\"http:\/\/www.templeton.org\/\"> John Templeton Foundation<\/a>, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nsf.gov\/funding\/pgm_summ.jsp?pims_id=5300\"> National Science Foundation\/National Institutes of Health Joint Program in Mathematical Biology,<\/a> and graduate fellowships from the National Science Foundation, and the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca\/index_eng.asp\">Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada<\/a>.<\/p>\n","innerContent":["\n\t\t<p>Researchers at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.harvard.edu\/\">Harvard University<\/a> say America\u2019s obesity epidemic won\u2019t plateau until at least 42 percent of adults are obese, an estimate derived by applying mathematical modeling to 40 years of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.framinghamheartstudy.org\/\">Framingham Heart Study<\/a> data.<\/p>\n<p>Their work, published this week in the journal <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ploscompbiol.org\/home.action\">PLoS Computational Biology<\/a>, runs counter to recent assertions by some experts that the obesity rate, which has been at 34 percent for the past five years, may have peaked. An additional 34 percent of American adults are overweight but not obese, according to the federal government\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/\">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The Harvard scientists say that their modeling shows that the proliferation of obesity among American adults in recent decades owes in large part to its accelerating spread via social networks.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOur analysis suggests that while people have gotten better at gaining weight since 1971, they haven\u2019t gotten any better at losing weight,\u201d says lead author Alison L. Hill, a graduate student in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fas.harvard.edu\/~ped\/\">Harvard\u2019s Program for Evolutionary Dynamics, Biophysics Program<\/a>, and at the Harvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences and Technology. \u201cSpecifically, the rate of weight gain due to social transmission has grown quite rapidly.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The projections by Hill and colleagues are a best-case scenario, meaning that America\u2019s obesity rate could rise above 42 percent of adults. One silver lining is that their model suggests the U.S. population may not reach this level for another 40 years, making the future rate of increase much more gradual than over the past 40 years. Only 14 percent of Framingham Heart Study participants were obese in 1971.<\/p>\n<p>Along with co-authors David G. Rand, Martin A. Nowak, and Nicholas A. Christakis, Hill broke down the spread of obesity into three components:<\/p>\n<p>\u25cf the rate at which obesity has spread through social networks, via transfer from person to person;<\/p>\n<p>\u25cf the rate of nonsocial transmission of obesity, such as through easier access to unhealthy foods or increasingly sedentary lifestyles;<\/p>\n<p>\u25cf the rate of \u201crecovery\u201d from obesity, defined as weight loss sufficient to push body mass index (BMI) back below 30.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe find that while nonsocial transmission of obesity remains the most important component in its spread, social transmission of obesity has grown much faster in the last four decades,\u201d says Rand, a research scientist in the Program for Evolutionary Dynamics and a fellow in <a href=\"https:\/\/psychology.fas.harvard.edu\">Harvard\u2019s Department of Psychology<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/cyber.law.harvard.edu\/\">Berkman Center for Internet & Society<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Hill, Rand, and colleagues found that a nonobese American adult has a 2 percent chance of becoming obese in any given year \u2014 a figure that has risen in recent decades \u2014 and that this number rises by 0.5 percentage points with each obese social contact, meaning that four obese contacts doubles the risk of becoming obese.<\/p>\n<p>By comparison, an obese adult has a 4 percent chance of losing enough weight to fall back to merely \u201coverweight\u201d in any given year. This figure has remained essentially constant since 1971.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThese results suggest that social norms are changing the propensity for becoming obese by nonsocial mechanisms, and also magnifying the effect that obese individuals have on their nonobese contacts,\u201d the scientists write in PLoS Computational Biology.<\/p>\n<p>Hill, Rand, Nowak, and Christakis\u2019 work was funded by the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nia.nih.gov\/\">National Institute on Aging<\/a>, the<a href=\"http:\/\/www.templeton.org\/\"> John Templeton Foundation<\/a>, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nsf.gov\/funding\/pgm_summ.jsp?pims_id=5300\"> National Science Foundation\/National Institutes of Health Joint Program in Mathematical Biology,<\/a> and graduate fellowships from the National Science Foundation, and the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca\/index_eng.asp\">Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada<\/a>.<\/p>\n"],"rendered":"\n\t\t<p>Researchers at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.harvard.edu\/\">Harvard University<\/a> say America\u2019s obesity epidemic won\u2019t plateau until at least 42 percent of adults are obese, an estimate derived by applying mathematical modeling to 40 years of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.framinghamheartstudy.org\/\">Framingham Heart Study<\/a> data.<\/p>\n<p>Their work, published this week in the journal <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ploscompbiol.org\/home.action\">PLoS Computational Biology<\/a>, runs counter to recent assertions by some experts that the obesity rate, which has been at 34 percent for the past five years, may have peaked. An additional 34 percent of American adults are overweight but not obese, according to the federal government\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/\">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The Harvard scientists say that their modeling shows that the proliferation of obesity among American adults in recent decades owes in large part to its accelerating spread via social networks.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOur analysis suggests that while people have gotten better at gaining weight since 1971, they haven\u2019t gotten any better at losing weight,\u201d says lead author Alison L. Hill, a graduate student in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fas.harvard.edu\/~ped\/\">Harvard\u2019s Program for Evolutionary Dynamics, Biophysics Program<\/a>, and at the Harvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences and Technology. \u201cSpecifically, the rate of weight gain due to social transmission has grown quite rapidly.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The projections by Hill and colleagues are a best-case scenario, meaning that America\u2019s obesity rate could rise above 42 percent of adults. One silver lining is that their model suggests the U.S. population may not reach this level for another 40 years, making the future rate of increase much more gradual than over the past 40 years. Only 14 percent of Framingham Heart Study participants were obese in 1971.<\/p>\n<p>Along with co-authors David G. Rand, Martin A. Nowak, and Nicholas A. Christakis, Hill broke down the spread of obesity into three components:<\/p>\n<p>\u25cf the rate at which obesity has spread through social networks, via transfer from person to person;<\/p>\n<p>\u25cf the rate of nonsocial transmission of obesity, such as through easier access to unhealthy foods or increasingly sedentary lifestyles;<\/p>\n<p>\u25cf the rate of \u201crecovery\u201d from obesity, defined as weight loss sufficient to push body mass index (BMI) back below 30.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe find that while nonsocial transmission of obesity remains the most important component in its spread, social transmission of obesity has grown much faster in the last four decades,\u201d says Rand, a research scientist in the Program for Evolutionary Dynamics and a fellow in <a href=\"https:\/\/psychology.fas.harvard.edu\">Harvard\u2019s Department of Psychology<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/cyber.law.harvard.edu\/\">Berkman Center for Internet & Society<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Hill, Rand, and colleagues found that a nonobese American adult has a 2 percent chance of becoming obese in any given year \u2014 a figure that has risen in recent decades \u2014 and that this number rises by 0.5 percentage points with each obese social contact, meaning that four obese contacts doubles the risk of becoming obese.<\/p>\n<p>By comparison, an obese adult has a 4 percent chance of losing enough weight to fall back to merely \u201coverweight\u201d in any given year. This figure has remained essentially constant since 1971.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThese results suggest that social norms are changing the propensity for becoming obese by nonsocial mechanisms, and also magnifying the effect that obese individuals have on their nonobese contacts,\u201d the scientists write in PLoS Computational Biology.<\/p>\n<p>Hill, Rand, Nowak, and Christakis\u2019 work was funded by the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nia.nih.gov\/\">National Institute on Aging<\/a>, the<a href=\"http:\/\/www.templeton.org\/\"> John Templeton Foundation<\/a>, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nsf.gov\/funding\/pgm_summ.jsp?pims_id=5300\"> National Science Foundation\/National Institutes of Health Joint Program in Mathematical Biology,<\/a> and graduate fellowships from the National Science Foundation, and the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca\/index_eng.asp\">Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada<\/a>.<\/p>\n"}],"innerHTML":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide\">\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n","innerContent":["\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide\">\n\n","\n\n<\/div>\n"],"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide has-global-padding is-content-justification-center is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n\n\n\t\t<p>Researchers at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.harvard.edu\/\">Harvard University<\/a> say America\u2019s obesity epidemic won\u2019t plateau until at least 42 percent of adults are obese, an estimate derived by applying mathematical modeling to 40 years of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.framinghamheartstudy.org\/\">Framingham Heart Study<\/a> data.<\/p>\n<p>Their work, published this week in the journal <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ploscompbiol.org\/home.action\">PLoS Computational Biology<\/a>, runs counter to recent assertions by some experts that the obesity rate, which has been at 34 percent for the past five years, may have peaked. An additional 34 percent of American adults are overweight but not obese, according to the federal government\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/\">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The Harvard scientists say that their modeling shows that the proliferation of obesity among American adults in recent decades owes in large part to its accelerating spread via social networks.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOur analysis suggests that while people have gotten better at gaining weight since 1971, they haven\u2019t gotten any better at losing weight,\u201d says lead author Alison L. Hill, a graduate student in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fas.harvard.edu\/~ped\/\">Harvard\u2019s Program for Evolutionary Dynamics, Biophysics Program<\/a>, and at the Harvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences and Technology. \u201cSpecifically, the rate of weight gain due to social transmission has grown quite rapidly.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The projections by Hill and colleagues are a best-case scenario, meaning that America\u2019s obesity rate could rise above 42 percent of adults. One silver lining is that their model suggests the U.S. population may not reach this level for another 40 years, making the future rate of increase much more gradual than over the past 40 years. Only 14 percent of Framingham Heart Study participants were obese in 1971.<\/p>\n<p>Along with co-authors David G. Rand, Martin A. Nowak, and Nicholas A. Christakis, Hill broke down the spread of obesity into three components:<\/p>\n<p>\u25cf the rate at which obesity has spread through social networks, via transfer from person to person;<\/p>\n<p>\u25cf the rate of nonsocial transmission of obesity, such as through easier access to unhealthy foods or increasingly sedentary lifestyles;<\/p>\n<p>\u25cf the rate of \u201crecovery\u201d from obesity, defined as weight loss sufficient to push body mass index (BMI) back below 30.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe find that while nonsocial transmission of obesity remains the most important component in its spread, social transmission of obesity has grown much faster in the last four decades,\u201d says Rand, a research scientist in the Program for Evolutionary Dynamics and a fellow in <a href=\"https:\/\/psychology.fas.harvard.edu\">Harvard\u2019s Department of Psychology<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/cyber.law.harvard.edu\/\">Berkman Center for Internet & Society<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Hill, Rand, and colleagues found that a nonobese American adult has a 2 percent chance of becoming obese in any given year \u2014 a figure that has risen in recent decades \u2014 and that this number rises by 0.5 percentage points with each obese social contact, meaning that four obese contacts doubles the risk of becoming obese.<\/p>\n<p>By comparison, an obese adult has a 4 percent chance of losing enough weight to fall back to merely \u201coverweight\u201d in any given year. This figure has remained essentially constant since 1971.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThese results suggest that social norms are changing the propensity for becoming obese by nonsocial mechanisms, and also magnifying the effect that obese individuals have on their nonobese contacts,\u201d the scientists write in PLoS Computational Biology.<\/p>\n<p>Hill, Rand, Nowak, and Christakis\u2019 work was funded by the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nia.nih.gov\/\">National Institute on Aging<\/a>, the<a href=\"http:\/\/www.templeton.org\/\"> John Templeton Foundation<\/a>, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nsf.gov\/funding\/pgm_summ.jsp?pims_id=5300\"> National Science Foundation\/National Institutes of Health Joint Program in Mathematical Biology,<\/a> and graduate fellowships from the National Science Foundation, and the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca\/index_eng.asp\">Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n<\/div>\n"}},"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":5651,"url":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2007\/03\/obesity-runs-in-families-and-friends-too\/","url_meta":{"origin":65352,"position":0},"title":"Obesity runs in families – and friends, too","author":"harvardgazette","date":"March 8, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Having overweight family and friends increases the likelihood someone will become overweight, according to a Harvard researcher who examined obesity and social network data from the long-running Framingham Heart Study.","rel":"","context":"In "Health"","block_context":{"text":"Health","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/section\/health\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13533,"url":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2006\/08\/obesity-begins-in-the-womb-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":65352,"position":1},"title":"Obesity begins in the womb","author":"gazetteimport","date":"August 9, 2006","format":false,"excerpt":"The obesity epidemic in the United States has spread to include children under 6 years old and particularly infants, according to a Harvard study.","rel":"","context":"In "Campus & Community"","block_context":{"text":"Campus & Community","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/section\/campus-community\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":88316,"url":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2011\/08\/tax-on-sugary-drinks\/","url_meta":{"origin":65352,"position":2},"title":"Tax on sugary drinks?","author":"harvardgazette","date":"August 25, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The global obesity epidemic has been escalating for decades, yet long-term prevention efforts have barely begun and are inadequate, according to a new paper from international public health experts published in the Aug. 25 issue of the journal The Lancet.","rel":"","context":"In "Health"","block_context":{"text":"Health","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/section\/health\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/sugarydrinks605main.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/sugarydrinks605main.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/08\/sugarydrinks605main.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":164800,"url":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2014\/12\/year-born-may-determine-obesity-risk\/","url_meta":{"origin":65352,"position":3},"title":"Year born may determine obesity risk","author":"harvardgazette","date":"December 29, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Framingham Heart Study, PNAS Early Edition, Harvard Medical School Investigators working to unravel the impact of genetics versus environment on traits such as obesity may also need to consider a new factor: when individuals were born.","rel":"","context":"In "Health"","block_context":{"text":"Health","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/section\/health\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/calendar605.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/calendar605.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/calendar605.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":245777,"url":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2018\/05\/new-center-will-address-fundamental-questions-about-living-systems\/","url_meta":{"origin":65352,"position":4},"title":"Bringing biology and mathematics together","author":"gazettejohnbaglione","date":"May 25, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The National Science Foundation and the Simons Foundation have awarded a grant to Harvard scientists to create a research center aimed at bringing biologists and mathematicians together to answer some of the central questions about living systems.","rel":"","context":"In "Campus & Community"","block_context":{"text":"Campus & Community","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/section\/campus-community\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/092314_murray_157.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/092314_murray_157.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/092314_murray_157.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/092314_murray_157.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":60429,"url":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2007\/07\/obesity-is-contagious\/","url_meta":{"origin":65352,"position":5},"title":"Obesity is contagious","author":"harvardgazette","date":"July 26, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"Public health officials have been working hard to account for the dramatic rise in U.S. obesity rates. Many obvious factors, such as poor diet and a sedentary lifestyle, certainly contribute to the swelling statistics. However, these and other explanations tend to focus exclusively on how individuals\u2019 choices and behaviors affect\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Health"","block_context":{"text":"Health","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/section\/health\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65352","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/105622744"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65352"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65352\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":274063,"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65352\/revisions\/274063"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/65387"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65352"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65352"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65352"},{"taxonomy":"format","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/gazette-formats?post=65352"},{"taxonomy":"series","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/series?post=65352"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}