{"id":316404,"date":"2020-11-23T13:00:39","date_gmt":"2020-11-23T18:00:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/?p=316404"},"modified":"2024-01-11T09:31:29","modified_gmt":"2024-01-11T14:31:29","slug":"students-study-past-elections-to-predict-future-outcomes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2020\/11\/students-study-past-elections-to-predict-future-outcomes\/","title":{"rendered":"The election in the classroom"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\t\n
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Professor of Government Ryan Enos’ course teaches students how take a deeper dive into election numbers.<\/p>

Photos by Jon Chase\/Harvard Staff Photographer<\/p><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\t

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\n\t\tThe election in the classroom\t<\/h1>\n\n\t\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t
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\n\t\tJuan Siliezar\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t

\n\t\t\tHarvard Staff Writer\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/address>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t

\n\t\t\tStudents look at polling, numbers to understand the electoral system\t\t<\/h2>\n\t\t\n<\/header>\n\n\n\n
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The election is over but in some classes students have been working for months trying to use what they learned to make sense of the result, and what led to it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Take the data-driven course on election analytics taught by Professor of Government Ryan Enos, for example. Students spent the semester studying past elections to make predictions about the outcome for 2020. They posted their forecasts on a GitHub site<\/a> throughout the weeks leading to the election. The students got the winner right but the margin wrong by 39 electoral votes. In upcoming weeks, they will delve into what they got wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA forecaster must determine the most probable outcome and clearly communicate the uncertainty surrounding their prediction,\u201d said Kayla Manning \u201922, a joint concentrator in statistics and government. The course crystalized the old adage that all models are wrong, but some are useful. She said the class will examine other models to better understand what factors influence election outcomes. \u201cVoters determine election outcomes, so other variables associated with election outcomes can reveal voters\u2019 [true] values,\u201d Manning said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The course is one of several Department of Government classes this fall that have been educating students about what has been an unprecedented and bitter election. Beyond how and why elections are won, classes studied the numbers game involved in polling and votes as well as how the electoral system evolved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Associate Professor Jon Rogowski\u2019s course on American presidential elections, sophomore Grant Schwartz, an economics concentrator, gained historical context to help apply fundamentals and theories, such as why particular behaviors are incentivized on campaigns and the history of absentee ballots (which goes back to the Civil War).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt allowed me to think about issues more critically,\u201d Schwartz said. \u201cWe talked a lot about how the electoral system is set up, the rules of the game, why the Electoral College is the way it is, which obviously gives you a lot of context into how campaigns need to win 270,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Schwartz\u2019s classmate Jing-Jing Shen \u201923 agreed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe American presidential election is a sustained journey,\u201d said Shen, a chemistry and government concentrator. \u201cFrom achieving the party\u2019s nomination to meeting people where they are and mobilizing voters through strategic outreach, the road to the presidency is a long one. Nonetheless, the impacts of elections on the future of the country and our democracy can be long-lasting.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Associate Professor Jon Rogowski teaches a course on American presidential elections.<\/p>\n<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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In her first-year seminar on American presidential campaigns and elections, Maxine Isaacs set up a bit of a thought experiment during the run-up to this year\u2019s election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Government Department lecturer broke her class up based on who they were voting for: a group of strong supporters of Joe Biden, now the president-elect, and fervent supporters of President Trump. The groups laid out their reasons for voting the way they were to the undecided students in the class without attacking the other side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Isaacs made clear the exercise wasn\u2019t a debate. Instead, the undecided students reacted to what they heard, saying which positions had compelled them and which hadn\u2019t. No one\u2019s mind was changed or made up by the exercise, but that wasn\u2019t the point. Isaacs just wanted them all to listen to each other with respect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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