{"id":304506,"date":"2020-11-24T17:28:56","date_gmt":"2020-11-24T22:28:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/?p=304506"},"modified":"2023-11-08T20:12:07","modified_gmt":"2023-11-09T01:12:07","slug":"our-post-pandemic-world-and-whats-likely-to-hang-round","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2020\/11\/our-post-pandemic-world-and-whats-likely-to-hang-round\/","title":{"rendered":"What will the new post-pandemic normal look like?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\t
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Rose Lincoln\/Harvard Staff Photographer<\/p><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\t

\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\tNation & World\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\n\t\t

\n\t\tWhat will the new post-pandemic normal look like?\t<\/h1>\n\n\t\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t
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\n\t\tAlvin Powell\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t

\n\t\t\tHarvard Staff Writer\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/address>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t

\n\t\t\tOutbreak forced changes big and small, some of which are here to stay\t\t<\/h2>\n\t\t\n<\/header>\n\n\n\n
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Will the wearing of bowties ever rebound with the once-fashion-conscious who\u2019ve grown used to every day being pandemic casual? How about the dollar bill, now that so much spending has gone online and onto plastic? What about doctors\u2019 visits, when the recent past showed that virtual appointments \u2014 minus traffic, parking, and schedule juggling \u2014 very often do the trick?<\/p>\n

The coronavirus pandemic has exerted enormous pressure on American society and forced a host of changes to how we live and work. But those pressures have ebbed and flowed with the outbreak\u2019s progress. When it all recedes in the likely not-too-distant future, experts expect older, more familiar ways of doing things to return, undoing some of the changes we\u2019ve seen since March.<\/p>\n

Harvard experts say some of our adaptations have accelerated already existing trends, like the development of a cashless society, the increase in remote work, and the decline of brick-and-mortar retail. And, they expect, some of these will become a more permanent part of the post-pandemic\u2019s \u201cnew normal.\u201d<\/p>\n

They also say, however, that the most lasting impact may turn out to be one that is invisible: the marking of those coming of age in the pandemic era, much as the Great Depression and World War II marked their generations, with broad but hard-to-predict effects that will affect society for decades to come.<\/p>\n

A generation defined?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\r\n\t\n\n\t
\"Karestan
Karestan Koenen. Courtesy photo\t\t\t<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\t\n\t\r\n\n

Karestan Koenen<\/a>, professor of psychiatric epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health,<\/a> views the effects of the pandemic as both acute and long-lasting, similar to those wrought by economic depression and war. Unlike shocking events that punctuated recent generations \u2014 the Kennedy assassination, or the Challenger disaster \u00a0\u2014 the pandemic packs a more enduring punch, affecting nearly every aspect of life with its long duration and widespread personal impacts like the deaths of loved ones and losses of jobs and businesses. The times are particularly difficult for those growing into adulthood and finding their place in the world.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat ongoing uncertainty takes a big toll. That\u2019s the basis of a traumatic stressor \u2014 unpredictability, uncontrollability \u2014 until it exceeds the ability of the organism to cope,\u201d Koenen said. \u201cIt\u2019s affecting every milestone: graduation, entering school, leaving school. For the older Gen-Zers: marriages, dating, jobs \u2014 in fact, there aren\u2019t jobs. That\u2019s a formative period in their lives when people are figuring out: What\u2019s important to me? What do I want my life to look like compared to my parents\u2019 life?\u201d<\/p>\n

While it\u2019s likely that the coming-of-age generation will bear long-term impacts, it\u2019s less clear what those might be, Koenen said. Today\u2019s young adults may think of health differently from earlier generations, as more of a common good than something intrinsically personal. If mask-wearing endures, they may not remember a time when not wearing one was acceptable. The pandemic\u2019s traumas could lead to a rise in hopelessness. Physical distancing may accelerate existing trends to connect via social media rather than in person, which, though compensating somewhat for pandemic-induced isolation, may hold its own negative effects.<\/p>\n

Younger Americans already exhibit higher levels of anxiety and depression than older generations, and Koenen is concerned that will be exacerbated in the years to come. Harder to measure, Koenen said, is the impact of missed opportunities. One characteristic of youth is a willingness to reach out and try new things, even when those things provoke anxiety. During normal times, initial worries fade as a new skill is learned or with the recognition that something isn\u2019t as bad as feared. Enforced isolation and curtailed activities are effectively swapping new experiences and challenges for time on the couch and on Zoom.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are things in our lives that are good to do for our development and those things may provoke anxiety at first,\u201d Koenen said. \u201cWhat happens if you\u2019re able to avoid normal developmental challenges? What happens when you don\u2019t get those opportunities?\u201d<\/p>\n

Working from what office?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\r\n\t\n\n\t
\"Tsedal
Tsedal Neeley. Photo by Evgenia Eliseeva\t\t\t<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\t\n\t\r\n\n

For those older and in the workforce, an obvious \u2014 and dramatic \u2014 change has been how their jobs have been affected. Advances in videoconferencing and other remote technologies have allowed many to continue to produce \u2014 and collect a paycheck \u2014 working from home.<\/p>\n

Though many will eventually return to the office, Tsedal Neeley<\/a>, Harvard Business School<\/a>\u2019s Naylor Fitzhugh Professor of Business Administration, said the shutdown highlighted the ease with which modern technology handled the shift from one location to another, as well as the ability of many office workers to get the job done even when not under their manager\u2019s eye. It also showed companies that there may be benefits \u2014 like saving money on office space \u2014 to the new arrangements.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think remote work will be permanent at the scale we saw in March, but I have no doubt that remote work will increase,\u201d said Neeley, whose forthcoming book is \u201cRemote Work Revolution: Succeeding from Anywhere.\u201d \u201cWe\u2019re definitely going to see a much bigger population working remotely.\u201d<\/p>\n

One function of the shutdown was forcing those unfamiliar with applications like Zoom, Microsoft Teams, and Google Meet to take the plunge and learn. And what many learned is it\u2019s not as hard as they thought.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat people have feared in the past is the technology aspects of it. And what we have seen is that the technology part is the easiest thing that people have taken up. They\u2019re on Zoom, Slack, Microsoft Teams, and with this ease, the possibilities open up,\u201d Neeley said. \u201cI think that\u2019s what\u2019s going to break this open for many, many people, especially if people in top positions see this is as an effective work format that they can now incorporate as part of their workforce planning.\u201d<\/p>\n

Benefits of that shift can accrue both to businesses, whose office overhead has declined, and workers, who are able to maintain a stable financial footing despite the crisis, save time commuting, and keep closer tabs on children. But the change hasn\u2019t been without negative side effects. Spending hours videoconferencing can sap energy, and home workers report fewer social connections and more time alone. Managers say it\u2019s harder to stay engaged with workers. Unanticipated situations have also cropped up, Neeley said, like a company that hired 800 people and brought all of them on board virtually, never having met them face-to-face.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey said, \u2018How on earth are we going to do that?\u2019\u201d Neeley said. \u201cA lot of firsts are happening.\u201d<\/p>\n

The repercussions of the shift are potentially far-reaching. Not only has it already transformed the workdays of millions, it could create a self-perpetuating cycle, as more workers become familiar with the virtual tools needed to work remotely and organizations change to accommodate those working out of the office. The move to remote work may also ripple through high-priced commercial real estate markets as companies take advantage of potential savings. Software company Culdesac announced last spring that it is moving workers online and closing its high-priced San Francisco offices. In July, Google announced that those whose functions don\u2019t require them in the office can work from home through July 2021 and, as the pandemic has stretched into the fall, other companies, like Microsoft and Ford Motor Co., have said offices will be closed through next summer. Twitter, meanwhile, has announced permanent remote work as an option for its employees. Its go-slow approach lets workers decide what is right for them, after which the company can reassess its office footprint without alienating staffers.<\/p>\n

\u201cAll the satisfaction comes when people are given a choice. Choice and autonomy are crucial for people to appreciate remote work and the chance afforded them,\u201d Neeley said.<\/p>\n

A tougher nut to crack<\/strong><\/h2>\n\r\n\t\n\n\t
\"Carole
Carole Voulgaris. Stephanie Mitchell\/Harvard Staff Photographer\t\t\t<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\t\n\t\r\n\n

While related to office occupancy, city center traffic may be a tougher nut to crack, according to Carole Voulgaris<\/a>, assistant professor of urban planning at the Harvard Graduate School of Design<\/a>. One widely appreciated effect of the shutdown has been the ease of navigating roadways, even in parts of the country where traffic congestion is legend.<\/p>\n

The deepest traffic reductions were fleeting, and many roads and highways have since seen significant rebounds, according to an August report by the International Bridge, Tunnel and Turnpike Association. Still, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey reported that traffic remained down 14 percent from pre-pandemic levels \u2014 it had dropped 65 percent in April. Similarly, the Ohio Turnpike reported early August traffic still down 15.8 percent after having dropped 50 percent in April. Other locations \u2014 the Pennsylvania Turnpike, still down 22.9 percent, and the San Francisco Bay area, 22 percent \u2014 reported recoveries that were less dramatic, and Voulgaris said it is likely that each would eventually recover to pre-COVID levels of congestion.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s because even though city planners, traffic engineers, and environmental advocates talk about reducing traffic by improving public transportation, adding tolls and other measures, traffic is firmly linked to economic activity. Victory in the battle, she said, likely won\u2019t come from a single step, but rather systemic change \u2014 which has so far evaded planners \u2014 that allows the economy to grow vigorously without increasing traffic headaches.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think it\u2019s helpful to think about what we\u2019re after as decoupling economic activity from congestion rather than just talking about reducing congestion. \u2026 I don\u2019t think that during the pandemic we\u2019ve found ways of doing that,\u201d Voulgaris said. \u201cI sometimes joke that it\u2019s actually really easy to reduce congestion if you just sabotage the local economy.\u201d<\/p>\n

Voulgaris acknowledged that the traffic slowdown has created an opening for other modes to expand. Some cities allocated roadway to bikes, pedestrians, and other alternate ways of getting around and, though Voulgaris expects many of those changes to be reversed, some \u2014 like Boston\u2019s decision to retain new bike lanes around its Common and Public Gardens \u2014 may become permanent.<\/p>\n

Cycling is one mode \u2014 in a compact city like Boston, anyway \u2014 that can benefit from rethinking the commute, Voulgaris said. Cyclists have been hitting the streets in force. Boston\u2019s BlueBikes bike-share system announced in early September that it had recorded its highest-ever single-day ridership of more than 14,400 trips. And that could make roads safer for bikers by fostering a new understanding of and appreciation for riders among those who\u2019ve tried out urban cycling and then gotten back behind the wheel.<\/p>\n

Empty storefronts, but Amazon is booming<\/strong><\/h2>\n\r\n\t\n\n\t
\"Rajiv
Rajiv Lal. Jon Chase\/Harvard Staff Photographer\t\t\t<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\t\n\t\r\n\n

Among the names on pandemic\u2019s casualty roll are some familiar to generations of Americans \u2014 J.C. Penney, Lord & Taylor, Brooks Brothers, Neiman Marcus, Pier 1, all of which filed for bankruptcy, citing reduced sales due to COVID-19. Online retail giant Amazon, on the other hand, has reported record profits, while electronics seller Best Buy reported increased second-quarter sales due to online purchases driven by home office needs.<\/p>\n

Clearly, said Rajiv Lal<\/a>, the Stanley Roth Sr. Professor of Retailing at Harvard Business School, the COVID crisis has hit different retail sectors differently. Some \u2014 mainly online \u2014 retailers have weathered the storm well, while others, particularly big-box, brick-and-mortar retailers that were already struggling with online competition, have seen declines accelerate dramatically as customers were locked out of stores.<\/p>\n

Mall-based retailers, already part of a decade-long downward trend, are in serious trouble, Lal said. While they were closed during the shutdown, their customers shopped online, including some who had been uncomfortable buying online. Post-pandemic, Lal said, at least some of them will be more comfortable with the quirks of online shopping, such as buying clothes they can\u2019t try on and having to return things by mail.<\/p>\n

\u201cConsumer behavior is moving to accept online shopping at an increasing pace,\u201d Lal said. \u201cI think online retailers are doing a lot of things that will overcome consumer inhibitions.\u201d<\/p>\n

For physical stores open during the pandemic, Lal said it\u2019s important that managers create an environment in which consumers feel safe. That might mean digitizing as much of their operations as possible and reducing contact during checkout. Longer-term success may depend on rethinking shopping, offering an in-person, window-shopping type of experience coupled with ordering items online, with the expectation from the start that some will be returned.<\/p>\n

\u201cBusinesses have to do things where people feel it\u2019s a safe place to shop. The government cannot do that; the businesses themselves have to do this,\u201d Lal said.<\/p>\n

Monthly retail numbers show that sales nationally are continuing to recover from the depths of March and April, but also that the pace of recovery has slowed each month since May\u2019s 17.7 percent bounce. That slowing recovery \u2014 August sales rose just 0.6 percent over July \u2014 likely reflects government stimulus, paycheck protection program loans, and enhanced unemployment benefits running out, Lal said. Without a renewal of those benefits, he said, retailers will face a difficult fall, since cash-strapped consumers may put off purchases until Christmas.<\/p>\n

When they do buy, Lal said, the shifting office environment \u2014 with so much activity now remote and online \u2014 means some clothing categories will suffer more than others. Formalwear in particular has taken a beating.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat\u2019s the future of ties and bow ties? It\u2019ll be a while until I run into someone wearing a tie or a bow tie,\u201d Lal said. \u201cFormal clothes will get hit hard. Everything related to dressing up will be hit quite significantly.\u201d<\/p>\n

It may also be that time is running out on large, department-store-style retailers, Lal said. Their problem is that they sell many similar brands so there aren\u2019t strong incentives to visit in person. In Europe, he said, retailing in the many boutique-style neighborhood stores is healthy, which may bode well for the smaller stores in U.S. city centers that can offer varied merchandise and bring customers back as offerings change.<\/p>\n

\u201cA lot of people are predicting bankruptcies for these stores, especially apparel retailers with a lot of merchandise that is not really unique,\u201d Lal said. \u201cI think navigating these short-term, medium-term challenges will be extremely difficult. \u2026 A second wave of COVID-19 would be devastating to the retail business.\u201d<\/p>\n

Where stuff comes from<\/strong><\/h2>\n\r\n\t\n\n\t
\"Willy
Willy Shih. Stephanie Mitchell\/Harvard Staff Photographer\t\t\t<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\t\n\t\r\n\n

A downside of the globalized economy became clear as the pandemic struck the U.S. and prompted the question: When the whole world wants something, how do you get to the head of the line?<\/p>\n

Personal protective equipment, much of which had been made in China, was in short supply last spring. Without it, hospitals and emergency workers were forced to scramble, innovating new designs and homemade alternatives that drew on volunteer labor, 3D printers, ingenuity, and more than a little desperation.<\/p>\n

The spring\u2019s shortages were blamed on the globalized economic system and the decline in U.S. manufacturing, exacerbated by a failure of foresight that anything could simultaneously halt the entire globe\u2019s manufacturing, air cargo, and ocean shipping businesses.<\/p>\n

Willy Shih<\/a>, Harvard Business School\u2019s Robert and Jane Cizik Professor of Management Practice in Business Administration, has heard the calls to dismantle the global manufacturing system. He\u2019s heard arguments for \u201cre-shoring\u201d production and stockpiling key products and parts so that the shortages caused by the pandemic across an array of industries doesn\u2019t happen again.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve been teaching people to run tight inventory and be efficient, but that depends on everything working,\u201d Shih said. \u201cWe never envisioned such a major disruption of air cargo. We never envisioned so many \u2018blanked\u2019 ocean sailings. Then the lack of inventory starts to bite the other way.\u201d<\/p>\n

While Shih is sympathetic to the notion that building up inventory and moving manufacturing home would be protective, he\u2019s also skeptical. The cheap labor and reduced manufacturing costs that drove production overseas in the first place haven\u2019t changed. In fact, he said, an argument could be made that with the global economic downturn, they are a greater draw than ever, with millions out of work and short on money.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou can do those things, but it better not cost more because consumers won\u2019t be willing \u2014 or necessarily able \u2014 to pay those costs,\u201d Shih said. \u201cThose things [re-shoring and low costs] are in direct contradiction now. That\u2019s what\u2019s so interesting.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even if manufacturers of items like essential medical equipment are brought home, Shih said the problem isn\u2019t solved. Demand as the pandemic struck likely outstripped production capacity anywhere \u2014 or everywhere \u2014 by more than 20 times for products like N95 medical masks. No manufacturer would build a factory with that much surge capacity in order to let it sit idle, awaiting the next pandemic. If that\u2019s the goal, he said, the government would have to commit to purchasing excess products, perhaps for a national stockpile, to make it worth the company\u2019s while to build and maintain the extra capacity.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you want resiliency, that costs you something. Will you pay for it?\u201d Shih said. \u201cNow people say \u2018Yes, we want resiliency,\u2019 but with the economic downturn people are going to want to save money on food and essentials.\u201d<\/p>\n

Shih\u2019s skepticism about economic nationalism shifting a lot of production doesn\u2019t mean changes aren\u2019t ahead. If the global economic collapse showed anything, it is the danger of relying on one major supplier for key products. Some manufacturers, Shih said, may decide to bring home production of essential parts, or to diversify production from one nation to multiple, which Shih called \u201cChina plus one\u201d or \u201cChina plus two.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI see it as a continued evolution,\u201d Shih said. \u201cI think the more lasting changes, especially if the pandemic drags on, is \u2018I\u2019m not going to single source, it\u2019s a China plus one or China plus two strategy.\u2019\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Your cash ain\u2019t nothing but trash (someday)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\r\n\t\n\n\t
\"Shelle
Shelle Santana. Stephanie Mitchell\/Harvard Staff Photographer\t\t\t<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\t\n\t\r\n\n

How we pay for all those goods is another shift, as the coronavirus\u2019 pressures can be felt not only in our paychecks, but on our legal tender as well. The use of cash in financial transactions has long been on the decline, with the FDIC reporting in 2017 that it was used in just 30 percent of all payments, according to an article by Shelle Santana<\/a>, assistant professor of business administration at Harvard Business School.<\/p>\n

According to research by Santana and the online payments processing and financial services company Square, last spring\u2019s shutdown led to an enormous jump in the percentage of U.S. retailers that were effectively cashless, defined as 95 percent or more of all transactions completed via credit, debit, or mobile. On March 1, about 8 percent of U.S. retailers using Square\u2019s payment service were effectively cashless, but by April 23 the number had soared to 31 percent.<\/p>\n

Santana and Square economist Felipe Chacon attributed the \u201ccrazy\u201d increase directly to the extreme conditions facing consumers: confined to home yet needing to meet basic needs. As with other COVID-driven changes, those proved temporary and the percentage of effectively cashless businesses fell by the middle of June to just under 20 percent.<\/p>\n

Santana and Chacon expect the numbers of cashless businesses to roughly track the pandemic, rising and falling according to local conditions. They said the numbers will also be affected by business adaptations that bring customers back through the doors \u2014 or to recently installed drive-up windows \u2014 where using cash is again an option.<\/p>\n

As the pandemic fades, Santana expects a return to a more cash-friendly normal, but not back to where it stood in February. Instead of 8 percent of U.S. businesses being effectively cashless as they were before COVID\u2019s spring disruption, she expects the number to fall to between 12 and 15 percent.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s occurring, she said, is that the pandemic is forcing older consumers who came of age when credit cards were used primarily for large purchases or kept unused for emergencies to rethink their plastic habits. It\u2019s making them more comfortable using cards for everyday purchases and even small items like a cup of coffee, something today\u2019s youth already see as no big deal. In 2015, half of Square\u2019s businesses consumers used a credit or debit card for an $8 transaction, while in 2019, half used it for a $4.50 purchase.<\/p>\n

Santana and Chacon said that the longer the COVID crisis impacts retail habits \u2014 boosting online and digital shopping, hurting in-person stores \u2014 the larger the signal that will remain when it leaves. Business owners agree. According to a Square study, 69 percent of small business owners say COVID-19 will accelerate the adoption of cashless transactions. And they now think a cashless society will occur six years earlier \u2014 in 13 years \u2014 than they did in 2019.<\/p>\n

\u201cPre-COVID, there was no reason to try mobile payment or in-app payment,\u201d Santana said. \u201cA segment of the population is going to stick with that behavior because of ease and habit.\u201d<\/p>\n

Telehealth<\/strong><\/h2>\n\r\n\t\n\n\t
\"DelBanco\"
Thomas DelBanco. Rose Lincoln\/Harvard Staff Photographer\t\t\t<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\t\n\t\r\n\n

\u00a0<\/strong>Ease is a factor behind experts\u2019 belief that the recent expansion of telehealth services will be enduring, as is another familiar one: money. Early on in the pandemic, insurance companies agreed to pay for telehealth services as they do for in-person services. The Harvard Chan School\u2019s Koenen said that important change enabled an expansion in telemedicine during the pandemic.<\/p>\n

For mental health services, Koenen sees the shift easing access even after the pandemic fades, extending providers\u2019 reach to those reluctant to seek help in person.<\/p>\n

Thomas DelBanco<\/a>, the John F. Keane & Family Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School<\/a>, said the recent surge in doctor appointments via telehealth is decades overdue. Delbanco is a driving force behind the international OpenNotes movement<\/a>, based at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. OpenNotes encourages patients to review clinicians\u2019 notes after their visits through secure, electronic patient portals. More recently, he\u2019s pushed the adoption of OurNotes, with patients joining their providers in generating the notes themselves. Before a visit, patients send in updates and their goals for the encounter, and these are incorporated into the note itself. In addition, they are asked to provide some of the routine information health aides typically collect at the start of an office visit.<\/p>\n

Delbanco said people have been talking about a shift to telemedicine for 20 years, but before COVID, just 7 percent to 8 percent of care was done remotely. Overnight that number jumped to 95 percent, forced by the immediacy of the pandemic \u2014 though enabled by years of technological development.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think it will become part and parcel of medicine,\u201d Delbanco said. \u201cThere are times when doctors, nurses, or therapists really need to see you \u2014 no question about it. But there are also times when they really don\u2019t.\u201d<\/p>\n\r\n

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