{"id":131808,"date":"2013-03-05T15:43:58","date_gmt":"2013-03-05T20:43:58","guid":{"rendered":"\/gazette\/?p=131808"},"modified":"2019-05-17T16:56:18","modified_gmt":"2019-05-17T20:56:18","slug":"crunching-data-in-the-campaign-cave","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2013\/03\/crunching-data-in-the-campaign-cave\/","title":{"rendered":"Crunching data in the campaign cave"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\t
\"\"

Harvard graduate and physics major Michelangelo D'Agostino (left) gives graduate students Yat Shan Au and Tom Dimiduk an overview of the wide-ranging role that data analytics played in Obama's presidential campaign. <\/p>

Photos by Jon Chase\/Harvard Staff Photographer<\/p><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\t

\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\tNation & World\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\n\t\t

\n\t\tCrunching data in the campaign cave\t<\/h1>\n\n\t\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\tChuck Leddy\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t

\n\t\t\tHarvard Correspondent\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/address>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t

\n\t\t\tA Renaissance scientist explains how he helped Obama win re-election\t\t<\/h2>\n\t\t\n<\/header>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\t\t

Like his Renaissance namesake who was an artist, architect, and engineer, Michelangelo D\u2019Agostino \u201902 has worked to master several fields, including journalism, astrophysics, teaching, artificial intelligence, and data analytics. Now add to that political game-changer.<\/p>\n

As a Harvard undergraduate, D\u2019Agostino moved seamlessly between physics and literature classes. He has been known to juggle two or three difficult jobs at the same time. He once conducted astrophysics and particle physics research in Antarctica while contributing science writing to The Economist<\/a>. So why shouldn\u2019t this Renaissance man help President Barack Obama win re-election in 2012?<\/p>\n

Campaign manager Jim Messina had decided that fundraising appeals should be driven by a systematic attention to measurable data. To make that happen, he and Obama needed top-notch scientific minds. D\u2019Agostino was comfortable with big data, statistics, and rigorous testing, and soon found a new home in \u201cThe Cave,\u201d the windowless office in Chicago that housed the Obama digital data team.<\/p>\n

Like a latter-day alchemist, D\u2019Agostino worked to uncover the mysterious element that transformed emails into fundraising gold.<\/p>\n

\u201cHistorical data really is a gold mine,\u201d D\u2019Agostino told an audience at his Monday Colloquium at the Physics Department<\/a>. Data can be used to build projection models that optimize communications and fund-raising efforts, he said during his talk called \u201cPhysics and Presidential Politics: The Role of Data in the Obama Campaign.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cInstead of using gut feelings,\u201d D\u2019Agostino said, \u201ccampaigns can now make numerical predictions based on data.\u201d<\/p>\n\r\n\t\n\n\t

\"\"
\u201cHistorical data really is a gold mine,\u201d Michelangelo D\u2019Agostino told his audience at a Monday colloquium at the Physics Department. Data can be used to build projection models that optimize communications and fundraising efforts, he said during his talk on \u201cPhysics and Presidential Politics: The Role of Data in the Obama Campaign.\u201d\t\t\t<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\t\n\t\r\n\n

D\u2019Agostino carefully tested campaign messaging under near-laboratory conditions, using small groups of supporters. Was it better, for example, to attack Republican candidate Mitt Romney or focus instead on the president\u2019s own record? Did casual, funny, angry, or rational messages work best? D\u2019Agostino tested them all, with surprising results.<\/p>\n

D\u2019Agostino described how he and the digital team worked on one particular email aimed at highlighting Romney\u2019s big edge in large donations. \u201cThe Romney campaign raises more than we do,\u201d said the Obama email. \u201cWe can be outspent and still win \u2014 but we can\u2019t be outspent 10 to 1 and still win.\u201d D\u2019Agostino tested a dozen subject lines, including \u201cThankful every day,\u201d \u201cChange,\u201d \u201cSome scary numbers,\u201d and \u201cI will be outspent.\u201d<\/p>\n

The subject lines that optimized donations weren\u2019t the hopeful \u201cChange\u201d or the gracious \u201cThankful.\u201d The pair that played into the anxieties of Obama supporters were \u201cSome scary numbers\u201d and \u201cI will be outspent.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cUglier things tended to work better,\u201d D\u2019Agostino said.<\/p>\n

A forecasting model he developed projected a $2.5 million \u201ctake\u201d from the winning \u201cI will be outspent\u201d subject line, versus a projected take of a mere $545,000 from the losing \u201cThankful every day.\u201d When the \u201cI will be outspent\u201d email was sent out to tens of millions of Obama supporters, its actual take was $2.6 million.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen you add it all up,\u201d D\u2019Agostino said, \u201cthis kind of optimization made a huge [fundraising] difference.\u201d He would help Obama to raise $504 million online.<\/p>\n

Not everyone enjoyed D\u2019Agostino\u2019s lab-tested emails. Jon Stewart, host of \u201cThe Daily Show<\/a>,\u201d mocked their tone of \u201cfake familiarity\u201d in a segment titled \u201cSpamalot.\u201d Every time Obama asked him for $75, joked Stewart, \u201cIt\u2019s like you don\u2019t really value our make-believe friendship.\u201d As for casual (\u201cHey\u201d) subject lines validated by D\u2019Agostino\u2019s test groups, Stewart said, \u201cYou don\u2019t need to address anyone as \u2018Hey\u2019 to be cool. You\u2019re the president, that\u2019s pretty \u2026 cool.\u201d<\/p>\n

Asked about Stewart\u2019s humorous jabs at his work, D\u2019Agostino laughed.<\/p>\n

Stewart \u201ccan make fun of it, but we had the data showing [a casual tone] was working,\u201d he said. \u201c\u2018Hey\u2019 just kept on winning\u201d over other, more serious-minded, approaches.<\/p>\n

In part because of such effective data-mining, Obama was re-elected.<\/p>\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

During an appearance on campus, Michelangelo D\u2019Agostino explained how he worked to mine fundraising data, helping President Barack Obama win re-election.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":105622744,"featured_media":131809,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"gz_ga_pageviews":0,"gz_ga_lastupdated":"","document_color_palette":"crimson","author":"Chuck Leddy","affiliation":"Harvard 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","mediaId":131809,"mediaSize":"full","mediaType":"image","mediaUrl":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/030413_physics_obama_007_605main.jpg","poster":"","title":"Crunching data in the campaign cave","subheading":"A Renaissance scientist explains how he helped Obama win re-election","centeredImage":true,"className":"is-style-full-width-text-below","mediaHeight":403,"mediaWidth":605,"backgroundFixed":false,"backgroundTone":"light","coloredBackground":false,"displayOverlay":true,"fadeInText":false,"isAmbient":false,"mediaLength":"","mediaPosition":"","posterText":"","titleAbove":false,"useUncroppedImage":false,"lock":[],"metadata":[]},"innerBlocks":[],"innerHTML":"<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img alt=\"\" height=\"403\" loading=\"eager\" src=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/030413_physics_obama_007_605main.jpg\" width=\"605\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><p class=\"wp-element-caption--caption\">Harvard graduate and physics major Michelangelo D'Agostino (left) gives graduate students Yat Shan Au and Tom Dimiduk an overview of the wide-ranging role that data analytics played in Obama's presidential campaign. <\/p><p class=\"wp-element-caption--credit\">Photos by Jon Chase\/Harvard Staff Photographer<\/p><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","innerContent":["<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img alt=\"\" height=\"403\" loading=\"eager\" src=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/030413_physics_obama_007_605main.jpg\" width=\"605\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><p class=\"wp-element-caption--caption\">Harvard graduate and physics major Michelangelo D'Agostino (left) gives graduate students Yat Shan Au and Tom Dimiduk an overview of the wide-ranging role that data analytics played in Obama's presidential campaign. <\/p><p class=\"wp-element-caption--credit\">Photos by Jon Chase\/Harvard Staff Photographer<\/p><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n"],"rendered":"<header\n\tclass=\"wp-block-harvard-gazette-article-header alignfull article-header is-style-full-width-text-below centered-image\"\n\tstyle=\" \"\n>\n\t<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img alt=\"\" height=\"403\" loading=\"eager\" src=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/030413_physics_obama_007_605main.jpg\" width=\"605\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><p class=\"wp-element-caption--caption\">Harvard graduate and physics major Michelangelo D'Agostino (left) gives graduate students Yat Shan Au and Tom Dimiduk an overview of the wide-ranging role that data analytics played in Obama's presidential campaign. <\/p><p class=\"wp-element-caption--credit\">Photos by Jon Chase\/Harvard Staff Photographer<\/p><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\t<div class=\"article-header__content\">\n\t\t\t<a\n\t\t\tclass=\"article-header__category\"\n\t\t\thref=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/section\/nation-world\/\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\tNation & World\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\n\t\t<h1 class=\"article-header__title wp-block-heading \">\n\t\tCrunching data in the campaign cave\t<\/h1>\n\n\t\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t<div class=\"article-header__meta\">\n\t\t<div class=\"wp-block-post-author\">\n\t\t\t<address class=\"wp-block-post-author__content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"author wp-block-post-author__name\">\n\t\tChuck Leddy\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t<p class=\"wp-block-post-author__byline\">\n\t\t\tHarvard Correspondent\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/address>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t<time class=\"article-header__date\" datetime=\"2013-03-05\">\n\t\t\tMarch 5, 2013\t\t<\/time>\n\n\t\t<span class=\"article-header__reading-time\">\n\t\t\t4 min read\t\t<\/span>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n\t\t\t<h2 class=\"article-header__subheading wp-block-heading\">\n\t\t\tA Renaissance scientist explains how he helped Obama win re-election\t\t<\/h2>\n\t\t\n<\/header>\n"},"2":{"blockName":"core\/group","attrs":{"templateLock":false,"metadata":{"name":"Article content"},"align":"wide","layout":{"type":"constrained","justifyContent":"center"},"tagName":"div","lock":[],"className":"","style":[],"backgroundColor":"","textColor":"","gradient":"","fontSize":"","fontFamily":"","borderColor":"","ariaLabel":"","anchor":""},"innerBlocks":[{"blockName":"core\/freeform","attrs":{"content":"","lock":[],"metadata":[]},"innerBlocks":[],"innerHTML":"\n\t\t<p>Like his Renaissance namesake who was an artist, architect, and engineer, Michelangelo D\u2019Agostino \u201902 has worked to master several fields, including journalism, astrophysics, teaching, artificial intelligence, and data analytics. Now add to that political game-changer.<\/p>\n<p>As a Harvard undergraduate, D\u2019Agostino moved seamlessly between physics and literature classes. He has been known to juggle two or three difficult jobs at the same time. He once conducted astrophysics and particle physics research in Antarctica while contributing science writing to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/\">The Economist<\/a>. So why shouldn\u2019t this Renaissance man help President Barack Obama win re-election in 2012?<\/p>\n<p>Campaign manager Jim Messina had decided that fundraising appeals should be driven by a systematic attention to measurable data. To make that happen, he and Obama needed top-notch scientific minds. D\u2019Agostino was comfortable with big data, statistics, and rigorous testing, and soon found a new home in \u201cThe Cave,\u201d the windowless office in Chicago that housed the Obama digital data team.<\/p>\n<p>Like a latter-day alchemist, D\u2019Agostino worked to uncover the mysterious element that transformed emails into fundraising gold.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHistorical data really is a gold mine,\u201d D\u2019Agostino told an audience at his Monday Colloquium at the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.physics.harvard.edu\/\">Physics Department<\/a>. Data can be used to build projection models that optimize communications and fund-raising efforts, he said during his talk called \u201cPhysics and Presidential Politics: The Role of Data in the Obama Campaign.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cInstead of using gut feelings,\u201d D\u2019Agostino said, \u201ccampaigns can now make numerical predictions based on data.\u201d<\/p>\n","innerContent":["\n\t\t<p>Like his Renaissance namesake who was an artist, architect, and engineer, Michelangelo D\u2019Agostino \u201902 has worked to master several fields, including journalism, astrophysics, teaching, artificial intelligence, and data analytics. Now add to that political game-changer.<\/p>\n<p>As a Harvard undergraduate, D\u2019Agostino moved seamlessly between physics and literature classes. He has been known to juggle two or three difficult jobs at the same time. He once conducted astrophysics and particle physics research in Antarctica while contributing science writing to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/\">The Economist<\/a>. So why shouldn\u2019t this Renaissance man help President Barack Obama win re-election in 2012?<\/p>\n<p>Campaign manager Jim Messina had decided that fundraising appeals should be driven by a systematic attention to measurable data. To make that happen, he and Obama needed top-notch scientific minds. D\u2019Agostino was comfortable with big data, statistics, and rigorous testing, and soon found a new home in \u201cThe Cave,\u201d the windowless office in Chicago that housed the Obama digital data team.<\/p>\n<p>Like a latter-day alchemist, D\u2019Agostino worked to uncover the mysterious element that transformed emails into fundraising gold.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHistorical data really is a gold mine,\u201d D\u2019Agostino told an audience at his Monday Colloquium at the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.physics.harvard.edu\/\">Physics Department<\/a>. Data can be used to build projection models that optimize communications and fund-raising efforts, he said during his talk called \u201cPhysics and Presidential Politics: The Role of Data in the Obama Campaign.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cInstead of using gut feelings,\u201d D\u2019Agostino said, \u201ccampaigns can now make numerical predictions based on data.\u201d<\/p>\n"],"rendered":"\n\t\t<p>Like his Renaissance namesake who was an artist, architect, and engineer, Michelangelo D\u2019Agostino \u201902 has worked to master several fields, including journalism, astrophysics, teaching, artificial intelligence, and data analytics. Now add to that political game-changer.<\/p>\n<p>As a Harvard undergraduate, D\u2019Agostino moved seamlessly between physics and literature classes. He has been known to juggle two or three difficult jobs at the same time. He once conducted astrophysics and particle physics research in Antarctica while contributing science writing to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/\">The Economist<\/a>. So why shouldn\u2019t this Renaissance man help President Barack Obama win re-election in 2012?<\/p>\n<p>Campaign manager Jim Messina had decided that fundraising appeals should be driven by a systematic attention to measurable data. To make that happen, he and Obama needed top-notch scientific minds. D\u2019Agostino was comfortable with big data, statistics, and rigorous testing, and soon found a new home in \u201cThe Cave,\u201d the windowless office in Chicago that housed the Obama digital data team.<\/p>\n<p>Like a latter-day alchemist, D\u2019Agostino worked to uncover the mysterious element that transformed emails into fundraising gold.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHistorical data really is a gold mine,\u201d D\u2019Agostino told an audience at his Monday Colloquium at the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.physics.harvard.edu\/\">Physics Department<\/a>. Data can be used to build projection models that optimize communications and fund-raising efforts, he said during his talk called \u201cPhysics and Presidential Politics: The Role of Data in the Obama Campaign.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cInstead of using gut feelings,\u201d D\u2019Agostino said, \u201ccampaigns can now make numerical predictions based on data.\u201d<\/p>\n"},{"blockName":"core\/image","attrs":{"sizeSlug":"full","align":"center","id":131812,"caption":"\u201cHistorical data really is a gold mine,\u201d Michelangelo D\u2019Agostino told his audience at a Monday colloquium at the Physics Department. Data can be used to build projection models that optimize communications and fundraising efforts, he said during his talk on \u201cPhysics and Presidential Politics: The Role of Data in the Obama Campaign.\u201d","blob":"","url":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/030413_physics_obama_021_500.jpg","alt":"","lightbox":[],"title":"","href":"","rel":"","linkClass":"","width":"","height":"","aspectRatio":"","scale":"","linkDestination":"","linkTarget":"","lock":[],"metadata":[],"className":"","style":[],"borderColor":"","anchor":""},"innerBlocks":[],"innerHTML":"\n\n\t<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img src=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/030413_physics_obama_021_500.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-131812\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u201cHistorical data really is a gold mine,\u201d Michelangelo D\u2019Agostino told his audience at a Monday colloquium at the Physics Department. Data can be used to build projection models that optimize communications and fundraising efforts, he said during his talk on \u201cPhysics and Presidential Politics: The Role of Data in the Obama Campaign.\u201d\t\t\t<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\t","innerContent":["\n\n\t<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img src=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/030413_physics_obama_021_500.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-131812\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u201cHistorical data really is a gold mine,\u201d Michelangelo D\u2019Agostino told his audience at a Monday colloquium at the Physics Department. Data can be used to build projection models that optimize communications and fundraising efforts, he said during his talk on \u201cPhysics and Presidential Politics: The Role of Data in the Obama Campaign.\u201d\t\t\t<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\t"],"rendered":"\n\n\t<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img src=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/030413_physics_obama_021_500.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-131812\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u201cHistorical data really is a gold mine,\u201d Michelangelo D\u2019Agostino told his audience at a Monday colloquium at the Physics Department. Data can be used to build projection models that optimize communications and fundraising efforts, he said during his talk on \u201cPhysics and Presidential Politics: The Role of Data in the Obama Campaign.\u201d\t\t\t<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\t"},{"blockName":"core\/freeform","attrs":{"content":"","lock":[],"metadata":[]},"innerBlocks":[],"innerHTML":"\n<p>D\u2019Agostino carefully tested campaign messaging under near-laboratory conditions, using small groups of supporters. Was it better, for example, to attack Republican candidate Mitt Romney or focus instead on the president\u2019s own record? Did casual, funny, angry, or rational messages work best? D\u2019Agostino tested them all, with surprising results.<\/p>\n<p>D\u2019Agostino described how he and the digital team worked on one particular email aimed at highlighting Romney\u2019s big edge in large donations. \u201cThe Romney campaign raises more than we do,\u201d said the Obama email. \u201cWe can be outspent and still win \u2014 but we can\u2019t be outspent 10 to 1 and still win.\u201d D\u2019Agostino tested a dozen subject lines, including \u201cThankful every day,\u201d \u201cChange,\u201d \u201cSome scary numbers,\u201d and \u201cI will be outspent.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The subject lines that optimized donations weren\u2019t the hopeful \u201cChange\u201d or the gracious \u201cThankful.\u201d The pair that played into the anxieties of Obama supporters were \u201cSome scary numbers\u201d and \u201cI will be outspent.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cUglier things tended to work better,\u201d D\u2019Agostino said.<\/p>\n<p>A forecasting model he developed projected a $2.5 million \u201ctake\u201d from the winning \u201cI will be outspent\u201d subject line, versus a projected take of a mere $545,000 from the losing \u201cThankful every day.\u201d When the \u201cI will be outspent\u201d email was sent out to tens of millions of Obama supporters, its actual take was $2.6 million.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen you add it all up,\u201d D\u2019Agostino said, \u201cthis kind of optimization made a huge [fundraising] difference.\u201d He would help Obama to raise $504 million online.<\/p>\n<p>Not everyone enjoyed D\u2019Agostino\u2019s lab-tested emails. Jon Stewart, host of \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.thedailyshow.com\/\">The Daily Show<\/a>,\u201d mocked their tone of \u201cfake familiarity\u201d in a segment titled \u201cSpamalot.\u201d Every time Obama asked him for $75, joked Stewart, \u201cIt\u2019s like you don\u2019t really value our make-believe friendship.\u201d As for casual (\u201cHey\u201d) subject lines validated by D\u2019Agostino\u2019s test groups, Stewart said, \u201cYou don\u2019t need to address anyone as \u2018Hey\u2019 to be cool. You\u2019re the president, that\u2019s pretty \u2026 cool.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Asked about Stewart\u2019s humorous jabs at his work, D\u2019Agostino laughed.<\/p>\n<p>Stewart \u201ccan make fun of it, but we had the data showing [a casual tone] was working,\u201d he said. \u201c\u2018Hey\u2019 just kept on winning\u201d over other, more serious-minded, approaches.<\/p>\n<p>In part because of such effective data-mining, Obama was re-elected.<\/p>\n","innerContent":["\n<p>D\u2019Agostino carefully tested campaign messaging under near-laboratory conditions, using small groups of supporters. Was it better, for example, to attack Republican candidate Mitt Romney or focus instead on the president\u2019s own record? Did casual, funny, angry, or rational messages work best? D\u2019Agostino tested them all, with surprising results.<\/p>\n<p>D\u2019Agostino described how he and the digital team worked on one particular email aimed at highlighting Romney\u2019s big edge in large donations. \u201cThe Romney campaign raises more than we do,\u201d said the Obama email. \u201cWe can be outspent and still win \u2014 but we can\u2019t be outspent 10 to 1 and still win.\u201d D\u2019Agostino tested a dozen subject lines, including \u201cThankful every day,\u201d \u201cChange,\u201d \u201cSome scary numbers,\u201d and \u201cI will be outspent.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The subject lines that optimized donations weren\u2019t the hopeful \u201cChange\u201d or the gracious \u201cThankful.\u201d The pair that played into the anxieties of Obama supporters were \u201cSome scary numbers\u201d and \u201cI will be outspent.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cUglier things tended to work better,\u201d D\u2019Agostino said.<\/p>\n<p>A forecasting model he developed projected a $2.5 million \u201ctake\u201d from the winning \u201cI will be outspent\u201d subject line, versus a projected take of a mere $545,000 from the losing \u201cThankful every day.\u201d When the \u201cI will be outspent\u201d email was sent out to tens of millions of Obama supporters, its actual take was $2.6 million.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen you add it all up,\u201d D\u2019Agostino said, \u201cthis kind of optimization made a huge [fundraising] difference.\u201d He would help Obama to raise $504 million online.<\/p>\n<p>Not everyone enjoyed D\u2019Agostino\u2019s lab-tested emails. Jon Stewart, host of \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.thedailyshow.com\/\">The Daily Show<\/a>,\u201d mocked their tone of \u201cfake familiarity\u201d in a segment titled \u201cSpamalot.\u201d Every time Obama asked him for $75, joked Stewart, \u201cIt\u2019s like you don\u2019t really value our make-believe friendship.\u201d As for casual (\u201cHey\u201d) subject lines validated by D\u2019Agostino\u2019s test groups, Stewart said, \u201cYou don\u2019t need to address anyone as \u2018Hey\u2019 to be cool. You\u2019re the president, that\u2019s pretty \u2026 cool.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Asked about Stewart\u2019s humorous jabs at his work, D\u2019Agostino laughed.<\/p>\n<p>Stewart \u201ccan make fun of it, but we had the data showing [a casual tone] was working,\u201d he said. \u201c\u2018Hey\u2019 just kept on winning\u201d over other, more serious-minded, approaches.<\/p>\n<p>In part because of such effective data-mining, Obama was re-elected.<\/p>\n"],"rendered":"\n<p>D\u2019Agostino carefully tested campaign messaging under near-laboratory conditions, using small groups of supporters. Was it better, for example, to attack Republican candidate Mitt Romney or focus instead on the president\u2019s own record? Did casual, funny, angry, or rational messages work best? D\u2019Agostino tested them all, with surprising results.<\/p>\n<p>D\u2019Agostino described how he and the digital team worked on one particular email aimed at highlighting Romney\u2019s big edge in large donations. \u201cThe Romney campaign raises more than we do,\u201d said the Obama email. \u201cWe can be outspent and still win \u2014 but we can\u2019t be outspent 10 to 1 and still win.\u201d D\u2019Agostino tested a dozen subject lines, including \u201cThankful every day,\u201d \u201cChange,\u201d \u201cSome scary numbers,\u201d and \u201cI will be outspent.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The subject lines that optimized donations weren\u2019t the hopeful \u201cChange\u201d or the gracious \u201cThankful.\u201d The pair that played into the anxieties of Obama supporters were \u201cSome scary numbers\u201d and \u201cI will be outspent.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cUglier things tended to work better,\u201d D\u2019Agostino said.<\/p>\n<p>A forecasting model he developed projected a $2.5 million \u201ctake\u201d from the winning \u201cI will be outspent\u201d subject line, versus a projected take of a mere $545,000 from the losing \u201cThankful every day.\u201d When the \u201cI will be outspent\u201d email was sent out to tens of millions of Obama supporters, its actual take was $2.6 million.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen you add it all up,\u201d D\u2019Agostino said, \u201cthis kind of optimization made a huge [fundraising] difference.\u201d He would help Obama to raise $504 million online.<\/p>\n<p>Not everyone enjoyed D\u2019Agostino\u2019s lab-tested emails. Jon Stewart, host of \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.thedailyshow.com\/\">The Daily Show<\/a>,\u201d mocked their tone of \u201cfake familiarity\u201d in a segment titled \u201cSpamalot.\u201d Every time Obama asked him for $75, joked Stewart, \u201cIt\u2019s like you don\u2019t really value our make-believe friendship.\u201d As for casual (\u201cHey\u201d) subject lines validated by D\u2019Agostino\u2019s test groups, Stewart said, \u201cYou don\u2019t need to address anyone as \u2018Hey\u2019 to be cool. You\u2019re the president, that\u2019s pretty \u2026 cool.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Asked about Stewart\u2019s humorous jabs at his work, D\u2019Agostino laughed.<\/p>\n<p>Stewart \u201ccan make fun of it, but we had the data showing [a casual tone] was working,\u201d he said. \u201c\u2018Hey\u2019 just kept on winning\u201d over other, more serious-minded, approaches.<\/p>\n<p>In part because of such effective data-mining, Obama was re-elected.<\/p>\n"}],"innerHTML":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide\">\n\n\r\n\t\n\t\r\n\n\n<\/div>\n","innerContent":["\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide\">\n\n","\r\n\t","\n\t\r\n","\n\n<\/div>\n"],"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide has-global-padding is-content-justification-center is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n\n\n\t\t<p>Like his Renaissance namesake who was an artist, architect, and engineer, Michelangelo D\u2019Agostino \u201902 has worked to master several fields, including journalism, astrophysics, teaching, artificial intelligence, and data analytics. Now add to that political game-changer.<\/p>\n<p>As a Harvard undergraduate, D\u2019Agostino moved seamlessly between physics and literature classes. He has been known to juggle two or three difficult jobs at the same time. He once conducted astrophysics and particle physics research in Antarctica while contributing science writing to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/\">The Economist<\/a>. So why shouldn\u2019t this Renaissance man help President Barack Obama win re-election in 2012?<\/p>\n<p>Campaign manager Jim Messina had decided that fundraising appeals should be driven by a systematic attention to measurable data. To make that happen, he and Obama needed top-notch scientific minds. D\u2019Agostino was comfortable with big data, statistics, and rigorous testing, and soon found a new home in \u201cThe Cave,\u201d the windowless office in Chicago that housed the Obama digital data team.<\/p>\n<p>Like a latter-day alchemist, D\u2019Agostino worked to uncover the mysterious element that transformed emails into fundraising gold.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHistorical data really is a gold mine,\u201d D\u2019Agostino told an audience at his Monday Colloquium at the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.physics.harvard.edu\/\">Physics Department<\/a>. Data can be used to build projection models that optimize communications and fund-raising efforts, he said during his talk called \u201cPhysics and Presidential Politics: The Role of Data in the Obama Campaign.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cInstead of using gut feelings,\u201d D\u2019Agostino said, \u201ccampaigns can now make numerical predictions based on data.\u201d<\/p>\n\r\n\t\n\n\t<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img src=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/030413_physics_obama_021_500.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-131812\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u201cHistorical data really is a gold mine,\u201d Michelangelo D\u2019Agostino told his audience at a Monday colloquium at the Physics Department. Data can be used to build projection models that optimize communications and fundraising efforts, he said during his talk on \u201cPhysics and Presidential Politics: The Role of Data in the Obama Campaign.\u201d\t\t\t<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\t\n\t\r\n\n<p>D\u2019Agostino carefully tested campaign messaging under near-laboratory conditions, using small groups of supporters. Was it better, for example, to attack Republican candidate Mitt Romney or focus instead on the president\u2019s own record? Did casual, funny, angry, or rational messages work best? D\u2019Agostino tested them all, with surprising results.<\/p>\n<p>D\u2019Agostino described how he and the digital team worked on one particular email aimed at highlighting Romney\u2019s big edge in large donations. \u201cThe Romney campaign raises more than we do,\u201d said the Obama email. \u201cWe can be outspent and still win \u2014 but we can\u2019t be outspent 10 to 1 and still win.\u201d D\u2019Agostino tested a dozen subject lines, including \u201cThankful every day,\u201d \u201cChange,\u201d \u201cSome scary numbers,\u201d and \u201cI will be outspent.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The subject lines that optimized donations weren\u2019t the hopeful \u201cChange\u201d or the gracious \u201cThankful.\u201d The pair that played into the anxieties of Obama supporters were \u201cSome scary numbers\u201d and \u201cI will be outspent.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cUglier things tended to work better,\u201d D\u2019Agostino said.<\/p>\n<p>A forecasting model he developed projected a $2.5 million \u201ctake\u201d from the winning \u201cI will be outspent\u201d subject line, versus a projected take of a mere $545,000 from the losing \u201cThankful every day.\u201d When the \u201cI will be outspent\u201d email was sent out to tens of millions of Obama supporters, its actual take was $2.6 million.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen you add it all up,\u201d D\u2019Agostino said, \u201cthis kind of optimization made a huge [fundraising] difference.\u201d He would help Obama to raise $504 million online.<\/p>\n<p>Not everyone enjoyed D\u2019Agostino\u2019s lab-tested emails. Jon Stewart, host of \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.thedailyshow.com\/\">The Daily Show<\/a>,\u201d mocked their tone of \u201cfake familiarity\u201d in a segment titled \u201cSpamalot.\u201d Every time Obama asked him for $75, joked Stewart, \u201cIt\u2019s like you don\u2019t really value our make-believe friendship.\u201d As for casual (\u201cHey\u201d) subject lines validated by D\u2019Agostino\u2019s test groups, Stewart said, \u201cYou don\u2019t need to address anyone as \u2018Hey\u2019 to be cool. You\u2019re the president, that\u2019s pretty \u2026 cool.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Asked about Stewart\u2019s humorous jabs at his work, D\u2019Agostino laughed.<\/p>\n<p>Stewart \u201ccan make fun of it, but we had the data showing [a casual tone] was working,\u201d he said. \u201c\u2018Hey\u2019 just kept on winning\u201d over other, more serious-minded, approaches.<\/p>\n<p>In part because of such effective data-mining, Obama was re-elected.<\/p>\n\n\n<\/div>\n"}},"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":172603,"url":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2015\/08\/murray-nominated-to-senior-role-at-department-of-energy\/","url_meta":{"origin":131808,"position":0},"title":"Murray nominated to senior role at Department of Energy","author":"harvardgazette","date":"August 6, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Cherry A. Murray, former dean of Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, was nominated by President Obama to be director of the Office of Science in the U.S. Department of Energy, a key administration post.","rel":"","context":"In "Campus & Community"","block_context":{"text":"Campus & Community","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/section\/campus-community\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/cherry-murray-podium.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/cherry-murray-podium.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/cherry-murray-podium.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":134051,"url":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2013\/03\/reading-the-presidents-mind\/","url_meta":{"origin":131808,"position":1},"title":"Reading the president\u2019s mind","author":"harvardgazette","date":"March 28, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Jon Favreau, who recently stepped down after several years as President Obama\u2019s head speechwriter, took a Harvard Kennedy School audience on a behind-the-scenes tour of the president\u2019s best-known addresses.","rel":"","context":"In "Nation & World"","block_context":{"text":"Nation & World","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/section\/nation-world\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/032713_speechwriting_207_605.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/032713_speechwriting_207_605.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/03\/032713_speechwriting_207_605.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":158998,"url":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2014\/07\/dual-appointment-for-oneil-outar\/","url_meta":{"origin":131808,"position":2},"title":"Dual appointment for O\u2019Neil Outar","author":"harvardgazette","date":"July 24, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Dean of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences Michael D. Smith and Vice President for Alumni Affairs and Development Tamara Elliott Rogers have announced O\u2019Neil A.S. Outar will become the new senior associate dean and director of development for the Faculty of Arts and Sciences (FAS) effective Sept. 8.","rel":"","context":"In "Campus & Community"","block_context":{"text":"Campus & Community","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/section\/campus-community\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/asstdean_oneiloutar_605.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/asstdean_oneiloutar_605.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/asstdean_oneiloutar_605.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":181284,"url":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2016\/03\/obama-in-havana\/","url_meta":{"origin":131808,"position":3},"title":"Obama in Havana","author":"harvardgazette","date":"March 19, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"President Barack Obama will be the first sitting U.S. president to visit Cuba since Calvin Coolidge traveled there in 1928. 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