{"id":130394,"date":"2013-02-19T17:27:49","date_gmt":"2013-02-19T22:27:49","guid":{"rendered":"\/gazette\/?p=130394"},"modified":"2013-02-19T17:27:49","modified_gmt":"2013-02-19T22:27:49","slug":"weather-warning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2013\/02\/weather-warning\/","title":{"rendered":"Weather warning"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\t\n\t
\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\tScience & Tech\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\n\t\t

\n\t\tWeather warning\t<\/h1>\n\n\t\n\t\n\t
\n\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\tPeter Reuell\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t

\n\t\t\tHarvard Staff Writer\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/address>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t

\n\t\t\tStudy examines climate change as a national security issue\t\t<\/h2>\n\t\t\n<\/header>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\t\t

A Harvard researcher is pointing toward a new reason to worry about the effects of climate change \u2014 national security.<\/p>\n

A new report<\/a> co-authored by Michael McElroy<\/a>, the Gilbert Butler Professor of Environmental Studies, and D. James Baker, a former administrator of the\u00a0National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/a>, connects global climate change, extreme weather, and national security. During the next decade, the report concludes, climate change could have wide-reaching effects on everything from food, water, and energy supplies to critical infrastructure and economic security.<\/p>\n

\u201cOver the last century, the trend has been toward urbanization \u2014 to concentrate people in smaller areas,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cWe\u2019ve built an infrastructure \u2014 whether it\u2019s where we build our homes or where we put our roads and bridges \u2014 that fits with that trend. If the weather pattern suddenly changes in a serious way, it could create very large problems. Bridges may be in the wrong place, or sea walls may not be high enough.\u201d<\/p>\n

Possible effects on critical infrastructure, however, only scratch the surface of the security concerns.<\/p>\n

On an international scale, the report points to recent events, such as flooding in Pakistan and sustained drought in eastern Africa, that may be tied to changing weather patterns. How the United States responds to such disasters \u2014 whether by delivering humanitarian aid or through technical support \u2014 could affect security.<\/p>\n

\u201cBy recognizing the immediacy of these risks, the U.S. can enhance its own security and help other countries do a better job of preparing for and coping with near-term climate extremes,\u201d Baker said.<\/p>\n

The report suggests that climate changes could even have long-reaching political effects.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s possible, McElroy said, that climate changes may have contributed to the uprisings of the Arab Spring by causing a rise in food prices, or that the extended drought in northern Mexico has contributed to political instability and a rise in drug trafficking in the region.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t have definitive answers, but our report raises these questions, because what we are saying is that these conditions are likely to be more normal than they were in the past,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cThere are also questions related to sea-level rise. The conventional wisdom is that sea level is rising by a small amount, but observations show it\u2019s rising about twice as fast as the models suggested. Could it actually go up by a large amount in a short period? I don\u2019t think you can rule that out.\u201d<\/p>\n

McElroy and Baker found that changes in weather patterns may already be under way.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne novel thing we did was to do an analysis of just how unusual the recent weather has been, based on the longest historical database we have,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cThe net conclusion is that weather is changing dramatically in specific regions, and the nature of the change is that we\u2019re seeing more record high temperatures and many, many fewer low-temperature records.\u201d<\/p>\n

Other potential effects, McElroy said, are tied to changes in an atmospheric circulation pattern called the Hadley circulation, in which warm tropical air rises, resulting in tropical rains. As the air moves to higher latitudes, it descends, causing the now-dry air to heat up. Regions where the hot, dry air returns to the surface are typically dominated by desert.<\/p>\n

The problem, he said, is that evidence shows those arid regions are expanding.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe observational data suggest that the Hadley circulation has expanded by several degrees in latitude,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cThat\u2019s a big deal, because if you shift where deserts are by just a few degrees, you\u2019re talking about moving the southwestern desert into the grain-producing region of the country, or moving the Sahara into southern Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n

The report is the result of the authors\u2019 involvement with Medea, a\u00a0group\u00a0of\u00a0scientists\u00a0who support the U.S. government by\u00a0examining declassified national security data useful for scientific inquiry. In recent decades, the group has worked with officials in the United States and Russia to declassify data on climatic conditions in the Arctic and thousands of spy satellite images. Those images have been used to study ancient settlement patterns in the Middle East and changes in Arctic ice.<\/p>\n

\u201cI would be reluctant to say that our report is the last word on short-term climate change,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cClimate change is a moving target. We\u2019ve done an honest, useful assessment of the state of play today, but we will need more information and more hard work to get it right. One of the recommendations in our report is the need for a serious investment in measurement and observation. It\u2019s really important to keep doing that, otherwise we\u2019re going to be flying blind.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe bottom line is that our national security depends on our ability to sustain and augment our scientific and technical capacity to monitor unfolding events and forewarn of important changes,\u201d Baker said. \u201cThe imminent increase in extreme events will affect water availability, energy use, food distribution, and critical infrastructure \u2014 all elements of both domestic and international security.\u201d<\/p>\n

The study was conducted with funds provided by the Central Intelligence Agency. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the CIA or the U.S. government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A report co-authored by Professor Michael McElroy and D. 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class=\"wp-block-post-author\">\n\t\t\t<address class=\"wp-block-post-author__content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<p class=\"author wp-block-post-author__name\">\n\t\tPeter Reuell\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t<p class=\"wp-block-post-author__byline\">\n\t\t\tHarvard Staff Writer\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/address>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t<time class=\"article-header__date\" datetime=\"2013-02-19\">\n\t\t\tFebruary 19, 2013\t\t<\/time>\n\n\t\t<span class=\"article-header__reading-time\">\n\t\t\t5 min read\t\t<\/span>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t<h2 class=\"article-header__subheading wp-block-heading\">\n\t\t\tStudy examines climate change as a national security issue\t\t<\/h2>\n\t\t\n<\/header>\n"},"2":{"blockName":"core\/group","attrs":{"templateLock":false,"metadata":{"name":"Article content"},"align":"wide","layout":{"type":"constrained","justifyContent":"center"},"tagName":"div","lock":[],"className":"","style":[],"backgroundColor":"","textColor":"","gradient":"","fontSize":"","fontFamily":"","borderColor":"","ariaLabel":"","anchor":""},"innerBlocks":[{"blockName":"core\/freeform","attrs":{"content":"","lock":[],"metadata":[]},"innerBlocks":[],"innerHTML":"\n\t\t<p>A Harvard researcher is pointing toward a new reason to worry about the effects of climate change \u2014 national security.<\/p>\n<p>A new <a href=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/climate_extremes_report_2012-12-04.pdf\">report<\/a> co-authored by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seas.harvard.edu\/directory\/mbm\">Michael McElroy<\/a>, the Gilbert Butler Professor of Environmental Studies, and D. James Baker, a former administrator of the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/\">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/a>, connects global climate change, extreme weather, and national security. During the next decade, the report concludes, climate change could have wide-reaching effects on everything from food, water, and energy supplies to critical infrastructure and economic security.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOver the last century, the trend has been toward urbanization \u2014 to concentrate people in smaller areas,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cWe\u2019ve built an infrastructure \u2014 whether it\u2019s where we build our homes or where we put our roads and bridges \u2014 that fits with that trend. If the weather pattern suddenly changes in a serious way, it could create very large problems. Bridges may be in the wrong place, or sea walls may not be high enough.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Possible effects on critical infrastructure, however, only scratch the surface of the security concerns.<\/p>\n<p>On an international scale, the report points to recent events, such as flooding in Pakistan and sustained drought in eastern Africa, that may be tied to changing weather patterns. How the United States responds to such disasters \u2014 whether by delivering humanitarian aid or through technical support \u2014 could affect security.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBy recognizing the immediacy of these risks, the U.S. can enhance its own security and help other countries do a better job of preparing for and coping with near-term climate extremes,\u201d Baker said.<\/p>\n<p>The report suggests that climate changes could even have long-reaching political effects.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s possible, McElroy said, that climate changes may have contributed to the uprisings of the Arab Spring by causing a rise in food prices, or that the extended drought in northern Mexico has contributed to political instability and a rise in drug trafficking in the region.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe don\u2019t have definitive answers, but our report raises these questions, because what we are saying is that these conditions are likely to be more normal than they were in the past,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cThere are also questions related to sea-level rise. The conventional wisdom is that sea level is rising by a small amount, but observations show it\u2019s rising about twice as fast as the models suggested. Could it actually go up by a large amount in a short period? I don\u2019t think you can rule that out.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>McElroy and Baker found that changes in weather patterns may already be under way.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOne novel thing we did was to do an analysis of just how unusual the recent weather has been, based on the longest historical database we have,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cThe net conclusion is that weather is changing dramatically in specific regions, and the nature of the change is that we\u2019re seeing more record high temperatures and many, many fewer low-temperature records.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Other potential effects, McElroy said, are tied to changes in an atmospheric circulation pattern called the Hadley circulation, in which warm tropical air rises, resulting in tropical rains. As the air moves to higher latitudes, it descends, causing the now-dry air to heat up. Regions where the hot, dry air returns to the surface are typically dominated by desert.<\/p>\n<p>The problem, he said, is that evidence shows those arid regions are expanding.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe observational data suggest that the Hadley circulation has expanded by several degrees in latitude,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cThat\u2019s a big deal, because if you shift where deserts are by just a few degrees, you\u2019re talking about moving the southwestern desert into the grain-producing region of the country, or moving the Sahara into southern Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The report is the result of the authors\u2019 involvement with Medea, a\u00a0group\u00a0of\u00a0scientists\u00a0who support the U.S. government by\u00a0examining declassified national security data useful for scientific inquiry. In recent decades, the group has worked with officials in the United States and Russia to declassify data on climatic conditions in the Arctic and thousands of spy satellite images. Those images have been used to study ancient settlement patterns in the Middle East and changes in Arctic ice.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI would be reluctant to say that our report is the last word on short-term climate change,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cClimate change is a moving target. We\u2019ve done an honest, useful assessment of the state of play today, but we will need more information and more hard work to get it right. One of the recommendations in our report is the need for a serious investment in measurement and observation. It\u2019s really important to keep doing that, otherwise we\u2019re going to be flying blind.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe bottom line is that our national security depends on our ability to sustain and augment our scientific and technical capacity to monitor unfolding events and forewarn of important changes,\u201d Baker said. \u201cThe imminent increase in extreme events will affect water availability, energy use, food distribution, and critical infrastructure \u2014 all elements of both domestic and international security.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The study was conducted with funds provided by the Central Intelligence Agency. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the CIA or the U.S. government.<\/p>\n\n","innerContent":["\n\t\t<p>A Harvard researcher is pointing toward a new reason to worry about the effects of climate change \u2014 national security.<\/p>\n<p>A new <a href=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/climate_extremes_report_2012-12-04.pdf\">report<\/a> co-authored by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seas.harvard.edu\/directory\/mbm\">Michael McElroy<\/a>, the Gilbert Butler Professor of Environmental Studies, and D. James Baker, a former administrator of the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/\">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/a>, connects global climate change, extreme weather, and national security. During the next decade, the report concludes, climate change could have wide-reaching effects on everything from food, water, and energy supplies to critical infrastructure and economic security.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOver the last century, the trend has been toward urbanization \u2014 to concentrate people in smaller areas,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cWe\u2019ve built an infrastructure \u2014 whether it\u2019s where we build our homes or where we put our roads and bridges \u2014 that fits with that trend. If the weather pattern suddenly changes in a serious way, it could create very large problems. Bridges may be in the wrong place, or sea walls may not be high enough.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Possible effects on critical infrastructure, however, only scratch the surface of the security concerns.<\/p>\n<p>On an international scale, the report points to recent events, such as flooding in Pakistan and sustained drought in eastern Africa, that may be tied to changing weather patterns. How the United States responds to such disasters \u2014 whether by delivering humanitarian aid or through technical support \u2014 could affect security.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBy recognizing the immediacy of these risks, the U.S. can enhance its own security and help other countries do a better job of preparing for and coping with near-term climate extremes,\u201d Baker said.<\/p>\n<p>The report suggests that climate changes could even have long-reaching political effects.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s possible, McElroy said, that climate changes may have contributed to the uprisings of the Arab Spring by causing a rise in food prices, or that the extended drought in northern Mexico has contributed to political instability and a rise in drug trafficking in the region.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe don\u2019t have definitive answers, but our report raises these questions, because what we are saying is that these conditions are likely to be more normal than they were in the past,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cThere are also questions related to sea-level rise. The conventional wisdom is that sea level is rising by a small amount, but observations show it\u2019s rising about twice as fast as the models suggested. Could it actually go up by a large amount in a short period? I don\u2019t think you can rule that out.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>McElroy and Baker found that changes in weather patterns may already be under way.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOne novel thing we did was to do an analysis of just how unusual the recent weather has been, based on the longest historical database we have,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cThe net conclusion is that weather is changing dramatically in specific regions, and the nature of the change is that we\u2019re seeing more record high temperatures and many, many fewer low-temperature records.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Other potential effects, McElroy said, are tied to changes in an atmospheric circulation pattern called the Hadley circulation, in which warm tropical air rises, resulting in tropical rains. As the air moves to higher latitudes, it descends, causing the now-dry air to heat up. Regions where the hot, dry air returns to the surface are typically dominated by desert.<\/p>\n<p>The problem, he said, is that evidence shows those arid regions are expanding.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe observational data suggest that the Hadley circulation has expanded by several degrees in latitude,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cThat\u2019s a big deal, because if you shift where deserts are by just a few degrees, you\u2019re talking about moving the southwestern desert into the grain-producing region of the country, or moving the Sahara into southern Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The report is the result of the authors\u2019 involvement with Medea, a\u00a0group\u00a0of\u00a0scientists\u00a0who support the U.S. government by\u00a0examining declassified national security data useful for scientific inquiry. In recent decades, the group has worked with officials in the United States and Russia to declassify data on climatic conditions in the Arctic and thousands of spy satellite images. Those images have been used to study ancient settlement patterns in the Middle East and changes in Arctic ice.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI would be reluctant to say that our report is the last word on short-term climate change,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cClimate change is a moving target. We\u2019ve done an honest, useful assessment of the state of play today, but we will need more information and more hard work to get it right. One of the recommendations in our report is the need for a serious investment in measurement and observation. It\u2019s really important to keep doing that, otherwise we\u2019re going to be flying blind.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe bottom line is that our national security depends on our ability to sustain and augment our scientific and technical capacity to monitor unfolding events and forewarn of important changes,\u201d Baker said. \u201cThe imminent increase in extreme events will affect water availability, energy use, food distribution, and critical infrastructure \u2014 all elements of both domestic and international security.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The study was conducted with funds provided by the Central Intelligence Agency. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the CIA or the U.S. government.<\/p>\n\n"],"rendered":"\n\t\t<p>A Harvard researcher is pointing toward a new reason to worry about the effects of climate change \u2014 national security.<\/p>\n<p>A new <a href=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/climate_extremes_report_2012-12-04.pdf\">report<\/a> co-authored by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seas.harvard.edu\/directory\/mbm\">Michael McElroy<\/a>, the Gilbert Butler Professor of Environmental Studies, and D. James Baker, a former administrator of the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/\">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/a>, connects global climate change, extreme weather, and national security. During the next decade, the report concludes, climate change could have wide-reaching effects on everything from food, water, and energy supplies to critical infrastructure and economic security.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOver the last century, the trend has been toward urbanization \u2014 to concentrate people in smaller areas,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cWe\u2019ve built an infrastructure \u2014 whether it\u2019s where we build our homes or where we put our roads and bridges \u2014 that fits with that trend. If the weather pattern suddenly changes in a serious way, it could create very large problems. Bridges may be in the wrong place, or sea walls may not be high enough.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Possible effects on critical infrastructure, however, only scratch the surface of the security concerns.<\/p>\n<p>On an international scale, the report points to recent events, such as flooding in Pakistan and sustained drought in eastern Africa, that may be tied to changing weather patterns. How the United States responds to such disasters \u2014 whether by delivering humanitarian aid or through technical support \u2014 could affect security.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBy recognizing the immediacy of these risks, the U.S. can enhance its own security and help other countries do a better job of preparing for and coping with near-term climate extremes,\u201d Baker said.<\/p>\n<p>The report suggests that climate changes could even have long-reaching political effects.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s possible, McElroy said, that climate changes may have contributed to the uprisings of the Arab Spring by causing a rise in food prices, or that the extended drought in northern Mexico has contributed to political instability and a rise in drug trafficking in the region.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe don\u2019t have definitive answers, but our report raises these questions, because what we are saying is that these conditions are likely to be more normal than they were in the past,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cThere are also questions related to sea-level rise. The conventional wisdom is that sea level is rising by a small amount, but observations show it\u2019s rising about twice as fast as the models suggested. Could it actually go up by a large amount in a short period? I don\u2019t think you can rule that out.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>McElroy and Baker found that changes in weather patterns may already be under way.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOne novel thing we did was to do an analysis of just how unusual the recent weather has been, based on the longest historical database we have,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cThe net conclusion is that weather is changing dramatically in specific regions, and the nature of the change is that we\u2019re seeing more record high temperatures and many, many fewer low-temperature records.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Other potential effects, McElroy said, are tied to changes in an atmospheric circulation pattern called the Hadley circulation, in which warm tropical air rises, resulting in tropical rains. As the air moves to higher latitudes, it descends, causing the now-dry air to heat up. Regions where the hot, dry air returns to the surface are typically dominated by desert.<\/p>\n<p>The problem, he said, is that evidence shows those arid regions are expanding.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe observational data suggest that the Hadley circulation has expanded by several degrees in latitude,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cThat\u2019s a big deal, because if you shift where deserts are by just a few degrees, you\u2019re talking about moving the southwestern desert into the grain-producing region of the country, or moving the Sahara into southern Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The report is the result of the authors\u2019 involvement with Medea, a\u00a0group\u00a0of\u00a0scientists\u00a0who support the U.S. government by\u00a0examining declassified national security data useful for scientific inquiry. In recent decades, the group has worked with officials in the United States and Russia to declassify data on climatic conditions in the Arctic and thousands of spy satellite images. Those images have been used to study ancient settlement patterns in the Middle East and changes in Arctic ice.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI would be reluctant to say that our report is the last word on short-term climate change,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cClimate change is a moving target. We\u2019ve done an honest, useful assessment of the state of play today, but we will need more information and more hard work to get it right. One of the recommendations in our report is the need for a serious investment in measurement and observation. It\u2019s really important to keep doing that, otherwise we\u2019re going to be flying blind.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe bottom line is that our national security depends on our ability to sustain and augment our scientific and technical capacity to monitor unfolding events and forewarn of important changes,\u201d Baker said. \u201cThe imminent increase in extreme events will affect water availability, energy use, food distribution, and critical infrastructure \u2014 all elements of both domestic and international security.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The study was conducted with funds provided by the Central Intelligence Agency. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the CIA or the U.S. government.<\/p>\n\n"}],"innerHTML":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide\">\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n","innerContent":["\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide\">\n\n","\n\n<\/div>\n"],"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide has-global-padding is-content-justification-center is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n\n\n\t\t<p>A Harvard researcher is pointing toward a new reason to worry about the effects of climate change \u2014 national security.<\/p>\n<p>A new <a href=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/02\/climate_extremes_report_2012-12-04.pdf\">report<\/a> co-authored by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.seas.harvard.edu\/directory\/mbm\">Michael McElroy<\/a>, the Gilbert Butler Professor of Environmental Studies, and D. James Baker, a former administrator of the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/\">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/a>, connects global climate change, extreme weather, and national security. During the next decade, the report concludes, climate change could have wide-reaching effects on everything from food, water, and energy supplies to critical infrastructure and economic security.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOver the last century, the trend has been toward urbanization \u2014 to concentrate people in smaller areas,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cWe\u2019ve built an infrastructure \u2014 whether it\u2019s where we build our homes or where we put our roads and bridges \u2014 that fits with that trend. If the weather pattern suddenly changes in a serious way, it could create very large problems. Bridges may be in the wrong place, or sea walls may not be high enough.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Possible effects on critical infrastructure, however, only scratch the surface of the security concerns.<\/p>\n<p>On an international scale, the report points to recent events, such as flooding in Pakistan and sustained drought in eastern Africa, that may be tied to changing weather patterns. How the United States responds to such disasters \u2014 whether by delivering humanitarian aid or through technical support \u2014 could affect security.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBy recognizing the immediacy of these risks, the U.S. can enhance its own security and help other countries do a better job of preparing for and coping with near-term climate extremes,\u201d Baker said.<\/p>\n<p>The report suggests that climate changes could even have long-reaching political effects.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s possible, McElroy said, that climate changes may have contributed to the uprisings of the Arab Spring by causing a rise in food prices, or that the extended drought in northern Mexico has contributed to political instability and a rise in drug trafficking in the region.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe don\u2019t have definitive answers, but our report raises these questions, because what we are saying is that these conditions are likely to be more normal than they were in the past,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cThere are also questions related to sea-level rise. The conventional wisdom is that sea level is rising by a small amount, but observations show it\u2019s rising about twice as fast as the models suggested. Could it actually go up by a large amount in a short period? I don\u2019t think you can rule that out.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>McElroy and Baker found that changes in weather patterns may already be under way.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOne novel thing we did was to do an analysis of just how unusual the recent weather has been, based on the longest historical database we have,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cThe net conclusion is that weather is changing dramatically in specific regions, and the nature of the change is that we\u2019re seeing more record high temperatures and many, many fewer low-temperature records.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Other potential effects, McElroy said, are tied to changes in an atmospheric circulation pattern called the Hadley circulation, in which warm tropical air rises, resulting in tropical rains. As the air moves to higher latitudes, it descends, causing the now-dry air to heat up. Regions where the hot, dry air returns to the surface are typically dominated by desert.<\/p>\n<p>The problem, he said, is that evidence shows those arid regions are expanding.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe observational data suggest that the Hadley circulation has expanded by several degrees in latitude,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cThat\u2019s a big deal, because if you shift where deserts are by just a few degrees, you\u2019re talking about moving the southwestern desert into the grain-producing region of the country, or moving the Sahara into southern Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The report is the result of the authors\u2019 involvement with Medea, a\u00a0group\u00a0of\u00a0scientists\u00a0who support the U.S. government by\u00a0examining declassified national security data useful for scientific inquiry. In recent decades, the group has worked with officials in the United States and Russia to declassify data on climatic conditions in the Arctic and thousands of spy satellite images. Those images have been used to study ancient settlement patterns in the Middle East and changes in Arctic ice.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI would be reluctant to say that our report is the last word on short-term climate change,\u201d McElroy said. \u201cClimate change is a moving target. We\u2019ve done an honest, useful assessment of the state of play today, but we will need more information and more hard work to get it right. One of the recommendations in our report is the need for a serious investment in measurement and observation. It\u2019s really important to keep doing that, otherwise we\u2019re going to be flying blind.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe bottom line is that our national security depends on our ability to sustain and augment our scientific and technical capacity to monitor unfolding events and forewarn of important changes,\u201d Baker said. \u201cThe imminent increase in extreme events will affect water availability, energy use, food distribution, and critical infrastructure \u2014 all elements of both domestic and international security.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The study was conducted with funds provided by the Central Intelligence Agency. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the CIA or the U.S. government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n"}},"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":43823,"url":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2004\/12\/gore-summers-mcelroy-to-speak-on-climate-change\/","url_meta":{"origin":130394,"position":0},"title":"Gore, Summers, McElroy to speak on climate change","author":"gazetteimport","date":"December 9, 2004","format":false,"excerpt":"Last month, a scientific report commissioned by the eight Arctic nations, including the United States, concluded that the Arctic is experiencing some of the most rapid and severe climate change on Earth. Changes in arctic climate will cause sea levels to rise and drive many species toward extinction, including polar\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Campus & Community"","block_context":{"text":"Campus & Community","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/section\/campus-community\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":174896,"url":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2015\/10\/harvard-creates-global-institute\/","url_meta":{"origin":130394,"position":1},"title":"Harvard creates Global Institute","author":"harvardgazette","date":"October 15, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"A multidisciplinary project to investigate climate change, energy security, and sustainable development in China has received the first $3.75 million grant from the new Harvard Global Institute.","rel":"","context":"In "Science & Tech"","block_context":{"text":"Science & Tech","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/section\/science-technology\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/100915_china_0100_605.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/100915_china_0100_605.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/100915_china_0100_605.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":422770,"url":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2026\/01\/michael-mcelroy-pioneering-atmospheric-scientist-dies-at-86\/","url_meta":{"origin":130394,"position":2},"title":"Michael McElroy, pioneering atmospheric scientist, dies at 86","author":"Terry Murphy","date":"January 29, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Helped build foundation of climate and environmental studies at Harvard","rel":"","context":"In "Campus & Community"","block_context":{"text":"Campus & Community","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/section\/campus-community\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Michael B. McElroy.","src":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/043007_McElroy_DR_013.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/043007_McElroy_DR_013.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/043007_McElroy_DR_013.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/043007_McElroy_DR_013.jpg?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":174139,"url":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2015\/09\/political-climate-changed\/","url_meta":{"origin":130394,"position":3},"title":"Political climate, changed","author":"harvardgazette","date":"September 25, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Chinese President Xi Jinping announced plans to institute a cap-and-trade program in the Asian giant by 2017. Harvard China Project leader Michael McElroy discussed the announcement and its potential effects on both climate legislation in the United States and on future climate talks in Paris.","rel":"","context":"In "Science & Tech"","block_context":{"text":"Science & Tech","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/section\/science-technology\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/mcelroy605.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/mcelroy605.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/mcelroy605.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":165931,"url":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2015\/02\/support-for-seven-from-presidents-climate-fund\/","url_meta":{"origin":130394,"position":4},"title":"Support for seven from president\u2019s climate fund","author":"harvardgazette","date":"February 11, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Seven research projects aimed at confronting the challenge of climate change using the levers of law, policy, and economics, as well as public health and science, have been awarded grants in the inaugural year of President Drew Faust\u2019s Climate Change Solutions Fund.","rel":"","context":"In "Science & Tech"","block_context":{"text":"Science & Tech","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/section\/science-technology\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/river_climategrants_605.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/river_climategrants_605.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/river_climategrants_605.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58149,"url":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2002\/11\/mcelroy-says-its-time-to-stop-seeing-global-warming-as-political-issue\/","url_meta":{"origin":130394,"position":5},"title":"McElroy says it’s time to stop seeing global warming as political issue","author":"harvardgazette","date":"November 14, 2002","format":false,"excerpt":"Michael B. McElroy, Gilbert Butler Professor of Environmental Studies and director of Harvard's Center for the Environment, is among the scientists who since the 1970s have been using paleoclimatic data to chart changes in the earth's atmosphere. To obtain these data, researchers drill several kilometers down into polar ice sheets\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Science & Tech"","block_context":{"text":"Science & Tech","link":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/section\/science-technology\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/130394","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/105622744"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=130394"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/130394\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/130439"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=130394"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=130394"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=130394"},{"taxonomy":"format","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/gazette-formats?post=130394"},{"taxonomy":"series","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/series?post=130394"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}